The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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National League v American League

Kickoff: 2026-07-15 00:20 UTC

Final: National League 0–4 American League

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

National League (Local)

Prediction 55.08%1.82fair odd
EV -0.857%
Edge -0.476%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.12%55.11%55.27%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.751.751.8059.17%57.01%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

American League (Visit)

Prediction 44.92%2.23fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.534%
Kelly -0.979%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%44.89%44.73%45.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.132.132.2048.78%46.97%46.84%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: National League (Local): 55.08%; American League (Visit): 44.92%. For National League (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -0.857%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -0.857%E -0.476%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -3.42%E -1.59%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-15 00:15
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%EV -0.857%E -0.476%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%EV -3.87%E -1.81%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-15 00:14
BetOnline.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -0.857%E -0.476%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -4.32%E -2.03%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-15 00:15
LowVig.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -0.857%E -0.476%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -4.32%E -2.03%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-15 00:15
BetAnything1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -1.96%E -1.10%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -2.52%E -1.16%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-15 00:14
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -1.96%E -1.10%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-15 00:14
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -1.96%E -1.10%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-15 00:14
Pinnacle1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -2.51%E -1.42%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -1.17%E -0.534%K -0.979%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-15 00:09
FanDuel1.75I 57.14%NM 55.24%EV -3.61%E -2.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76%EV -2.97%E -1.38%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-15 00:14
TAB1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.61%E -2.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -3.42%E -1.59%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-15 00:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.61%E -2.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 00:15
Neds1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.61%E -2.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 00:14
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.61%E -2.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.57%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-15 00:14
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.16%E -2.39%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.42%E -1.59%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-15 00:13
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.16%E -2.39%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.42%E -1.59%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-15 00:14
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.71%E -2.72%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.42%E -1.59%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-15 00:15
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.71%E -2.72%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.42%E -1.59%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-15 00:15
SportsBet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.18%EV -4.71%E -2.72%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%EV -4.32%E -2.03%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 00:15
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.71%E -2.72%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-15 00:14
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.71%E -2.72%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-15 00:14
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.81%E -3.40%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -1.17%E -0.534%K -0.979%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-15 00:14
Fliff1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.92%E -4.09%K -10.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-15 00:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%0.7%2026-07-15 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%0.7%2026-07-15 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%0.7%2026-07-15 00:15
ProphetX1.78I 56.18%NM 55.39%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.61%1.4%2026-07-15 00:15
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.9%2026-07-15 00:15