Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Minnesota Twins v Atlanta Braves

Inicio: 2026-08-18 23:41 UTC

Final: Minnesota Twins 4–1 Atlanta Braves

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Minnesota Twins (Local)

Predicción 42.53%2.35momio equitativo
EV +0.796%
Ventaja +0.336%
Kelly +0.581%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.37

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.03%42.43%42.60%44.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.252.252.3746.51%44.46%44.44%42.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlanta Braves (Visitante)

Predicción 57.47%1.74momio equitativo
EV -0.577%
Ventaja -0.333%
Kelly -0.790%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.84%57.57%57.40%58.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.601.671.671.7362.50%60.06%59.88%57.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Minnesota Twins (Local): 42.53%; Atlanta Braves (Visitante): 57.47%. Para Minnesota Twins (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.35. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.37, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.796%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
DraftKings🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 41.48%EV +0.796%E +0.336%K +0.581%G +0.005%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.52%EV -3.45%E -2.05%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-18 23:35
Everygame🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV -0.906%E -0.389%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -2.88%E -1.70%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-18 23:18
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%EV -1.33%E -0.574%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%EV -3.45%E -2.05%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-18 23:30
GTbets🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV -1.76%E -0.760%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -2.30%E -1.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-18 23:35
theScore Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 42.11%EV -1.76%E -0.760%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.89%EV -3.45%E -2.05%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-18 21:44
BetUS🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 42.11%EV -1.76%E -0.760%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.89%EV -3.45%E -2.05%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-18 23:29
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -2.18%E -0.948%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -1.73%E -1.01%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-18 23:35
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -2.18%E -0.948%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -1.73%E -1.01%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-18 23:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -2.18%E -0.948%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -1.73%E -1.01%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-18 23:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%EV -2.18%E -0.948%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%EV -2.30%E -1.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-18 23:34
BetAnything🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -2.18%E -0.948%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -3.45%E -2.05%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-18 22:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.18%E -0.948%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-18 23:34
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.18%E -0.948%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.90%E -4.26%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-18 23:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.18%E -0.948%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -8.05%E -5.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-18 23:35
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.75%EV -2.61%E -1.14%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.25%EV -1.73%E -1.01%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-18 23:25
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -3.03%E -1.33%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -3.45%E -2.05%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-18 22:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -3.03%E -1.33%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -3.45%E -2.05%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-18 22:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV -3.46%E -1.52%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-18 23:34
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36%EV -3.88%E -1.72%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64%EV -0.577%E -0.333%K -0.790%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-18 23:00
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -3.45%E -2.05%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-18 23:34
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-18 23:14
ReBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-18 23:34
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-18 23:30
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-18 21:44
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-18 22:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-18 22:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:40
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:40
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:40
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:40
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:40
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.17%E -3.14%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 23:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.17%E -3.14%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 23:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.17%E -3.14%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 23:20
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.17%E -3.14%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 23:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.17%E -3.14%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 23:30
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.31%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.17%E -3.14%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 23:30
Bet Right🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.73%E -2.11%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-18 23:20
MyBookie.ag🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -5.16%E -2.31%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -2.88%E -1.70%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-18 21:44
SportsBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.16%E -2.31%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 23:34
Coolbet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.16%E -2.31%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 23:20
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -5.16%E -2.31%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.17%E -3.14%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 22:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -5.16%E -2.31%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -6.32%E -3.88%K -10.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-18 22:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -5.16%E -2.31%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -6.32%E -3.88%K -10.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-18 22:40
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -5.58%E -2.52%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 23:35
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -5.58%E -2.52%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -4.60%E -2.77%K -6.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 23:35
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.45%E -2.05%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-18 22:50
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 23:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 23:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 21:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.02%E -2.41%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 23:30
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.17%E -3.14%K -7.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-18 23:34
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.17%E -3.14%K -7.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-18 23:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.75%E -3.51%K -8.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-18 23:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.75%E -3.51%K -8.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-18 23:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.75%E -3.51%K -8.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-18 23:34
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.43%E -2.92%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.90%E -4.26%K -11.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-18 22:55
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.44%EV -7.71%E -3.55%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -8.05%E -5.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-18 22:40
Dabble (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.56%E -3.98%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.30%E -1.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 22:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -8.56%E -3.98%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.88%EV -6.32%E -3.88%K -10.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-18 23:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.30%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.70%0.2%2026-08-18 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.30%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.70%0.2%2026-08-18 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.30%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.70%0.2%2026-08-18 23:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-08-18 23:20
Novig◎2.35I 42.55%NM 42.26%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%0.7%2026-08-18 23:10
ProphetX◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%0.9%2026-08-18 23:15
Polymarket◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%1.1%2026-08-18 22:00
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%1.1%2026-08-18 21:30
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%2.6%2026-08-18 23:10
BetOpenly◎2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%5.0%2026-08-18 23:20