Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates

2026-08-05 23:40 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Milwaukee Brewers (Local)

Predicción 54.69%1.83momio equitativo
EV -1.56%
Ventaja -0.865%
Kelly -1.95%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.66%54.67%54.82%55.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.661.751.751.8060.24%57.14%56.98%55.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visitante)

Predicción 45.31%2.21momio equitativo
EV -0.319%
Ventaja -0.145%
Kelly -0.266%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.58%45.33%45.18%46.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.982.102.102.2050.51%47.71%47.62%45.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Milwaukee Brewers (Local): 54.69%; Pittsburgh Pirates (Visitante): 45.31%. Para Pittsburgh Pirates (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.21. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.20, con un valor esperado de -0.319%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -1.56%E -0.865%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -2.58%E -1.20%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-05 00:14
1xBet1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -2.65%E -1.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -1.23%E -0.562%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-05 00:55
GTbets1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -2.65%E -1.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -1.23%E -0.562%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-04 22:54
BetUS1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -2.65%E -1.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -1.68%E -0.773%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-05 00:19
LowVig.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.65%E -1.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.13%E -0.987%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-04 22:54
BetOnline.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.65%E -1.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.13%E -0.987%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-04 22:55
Pinnacle1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.65%E -1.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.13%E -0.987%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-05 01:55
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -0.319%E -0.145%K -0.266%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-05 01:09
Betway1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.58%E -1.20%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-04 23:45
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 22:54
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 20:35
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 21:20
Unibet (SE)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 01:49
BetRivers1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 01:50
Unibet (NL)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 01:50
BetAnything1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 02:25
Svenska Spel1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 01:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.12%E -3.47%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 22:54
Neds1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.12%E -3.47%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 22:54
Fliff1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.20%E -1.81%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.12%E -3.47%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 02:40
Bovada1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -3.74%E -2.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -5.30%E -2.54%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:40
Casumo1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.74%E -2.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.76%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 01:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.74%E -2.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.76%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 01:50
Unibet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.74%E -2.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.76%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 01:49
ATG (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.74%E -2.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.76%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 01:49
betPARX1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.74%E -2.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.76%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 01:50
Bally Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.74%E -2.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.76%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 01:49
NordicBet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.74%E -2.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.21%E -3.00%K -5.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 02:29
Betsson1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.74%E -2.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.21%E -3.00%K -5.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 02:30
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.29%E -2.45%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:10
Bet Right1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.29%E -2.45%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 23:25
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.29%E -2.45%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 22:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.29%E -2.45%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 22:55
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.29%E -2.45%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 02:24
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.29%E -2.45%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.76%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 20:38
TABtouch1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.29%E -2.45%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.76%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 01:50
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.29%E -2.45%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.12%E -3.47%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 20:39
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -4.84%E -2.78%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -3.49%E -1.64%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 23:25
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.84%E -2.78%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 22:54
Marathon Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -4.40%E -2.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 00:35
Unibet (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 23:25
Betr (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 23:24
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 23:00
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 23:28
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 23:00
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 23:00
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 02:39
betano_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 01:23
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 02:25
Virgin Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.12%E -3.47%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:50
LiveScore Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.39%E -3.11%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.12%E -3.47%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-05 01:50
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.93%E -3.45%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 23:24
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.93%E -3.45%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.76%E -2.77%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 23:28
ReBet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.48%E -3.79%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.85%E -2.31%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 23:44
Grosvenor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.03%E -4.13%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.38%E -4.69%K -9.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-05 01:50
Unibet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -8.12%E -4.83%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -9.38%E -4.69%K -9.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-04 23:45
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -9.21%E -5.55%K -13.96%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -10.29%E -5.20%K -10.50%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-04 23:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.82I 54.95%NM 54.95%2.22I 45.05%NM 45.05%-0.0%2026-08-05 01:54
ProphetX1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-08-05 01:50
Novig1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-08-05 02:20
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-08-05 02:40
Polymarket1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-08-04 23:25
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%2.9%2026-08-05 02:40
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%9.0%2026-08-04 23:30