Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals

2026-08-23 17:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Predicción 59.03%1.69momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.848%
Kelly -2.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.69%58.98%58.99%60.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.631.621.6764.10%61.54%61.73%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Washington Nationals (Visitante)

Predicción 40.97%2.44momio equitativo
EV +0.371%
Ventaja +0.151%
Kelly +0.256%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.75%41.02%41.01%42.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.322.302.4545.45%43.14%43.48%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Miami Marlins (Local): 59.03%; Washington Nationals (Visitante): 40.97%. Para Washington Nationals (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.44. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.45, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.371%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.76%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 40.24%EV +0.371%E +0.151%K +0.256%G +0.001%1.4%2026-08-22 19:44
Caesars🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.56%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.44%EV -0.449%E -0.185%K -0.314%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-22 18:59
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%EV -0.858%E -0.355%K -0.604%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-22 19:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -1.68%E -0.699%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-22 19:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -1.68%E -0.699%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-22 19:00
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -1.68%E -0.699%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-23 01:04
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%EV -1.42%E -0.848%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%EV -2.50%E -1.05%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-22 19:00
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -2.50%E -1.05%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-22 22:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -2.50%E -1.05%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-23 02:09
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.32%E -4.66%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.50%E -1.05%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 19:00
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.81%EV -2.01%E -1.21%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.19%EV -2.91%E -1.23%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-22 22:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.96%E -3.08%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.91%E -1.23%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 22:40
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.96%E -3.08%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.91%E -1.23%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 22:40
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 19:00
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 18:59
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-22 19:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.78%E -2.32%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-22 19:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-23 01:14
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 22:39
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.96%E -3.08%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 19:00
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.96%E -3.08%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 19:00
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.55%E -3.47%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 19:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.55%E -3.47%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 19:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.55%E -3.47%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 19:00
Bet Right🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.96%E -3.08%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.14%E -1.77%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 01:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.55%E -1.95%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-22 22:45
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.96%E -3.08%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.55%E -1.95%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 01:14
SportsBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -6.14%E -3.86%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -4.95%E -2.14%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -4.96%E -3.08%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -5.36%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 19:00
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 23:08
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-23 01:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-23 01:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-23 01:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-23 01:04
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.78%E -2.32%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 01:14
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 00:35
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 02:19
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 02:30
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.96%E -3.08%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 22:44
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.55%E -3.47%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.55%E -3.47%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.55%E -3.47%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 22:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.55%E -3.47%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 20:34
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 01:04
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 01:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 01:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 01:04
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 01:05
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 01:05
Betsson🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -3.78%E -2.32%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -7.00%E -3.09%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 22:39
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -3.78%E -2.32%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -7.00%E -3.09%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 22:38
Dabble (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.60%E -1.57%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 02:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.19%E -1.94%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 22:39
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.19%E -1.94%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 22:40
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.19%E -1.94%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 01:04
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 23:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -6.73%E -4.26%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 23:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -8.64%E -3.88%K -7.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 01:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -4.37%E -2.70%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -8.64%E -3.88%K -7.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 01:04
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -7.32%E -4.66%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -9.87%E -4.49%K -8.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 01:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.91%E -5.07%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -9.87%E -4.49%K -8.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 22:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%0.8%2026-08-23 02:20
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-08-22 22:35
Novig1.67I 59.88%NM 59.07%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.93%1.4%2026-08-23 02:05
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-08-23 02:35
Matchbook1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%3.3%2026-08-22 22:55
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%9.6%2026-08-22 22:50

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