Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals

Inicio: 2026-09-04 02:10 UTC

Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 3–2 St. Louis Cardinals

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Los Angeles Dodgers (Local)

Predicción 71.41%1.40momio equitativo
EV -1.45%
Ventaja -1.05%
Kelly -3.81%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.20%71.52%71.43%74.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.241.331.331.3880.65%75.29%75.19%72.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante)

Predicción 28.59%3.50momio equitativo
EV +5.77%
Ventaja +1.56%
Kelly +2.14%
Crecimiento +0.123%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.81%28.48%28.57%30.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.383.353.7032.26%29.58%29.85%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Los Angeles Dodgers (Local): 71.41%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante): 28.59%. Para St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.50. 13 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.77%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -7.16%E -5.51%K -23.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV +5.77%E +1.56%K +2.14%G +0.123%4.0%2026-09-04 02:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -7.16%E -5.51%K -23.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV +5.77%E +1.56%K +2.14%G +0.123%4.0%2026-09-04 02:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -7.16%E -5.51%K -23.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV +5.77%E +1.56%K +2.14%G +0.123%4.0%2026-09-04 02:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -7.16%E -5.51%K -23.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV +5.77%E +1.56%K +2.14%G +0.123%4.0%2026-09-04 02:05
Unibet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -7.88%E -6.10%K -27.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +5.77%E +1.56%K +2.14%G +0.123%4.5%2026-09-04 02:05
Casumo🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -7.88%E -6.10%K -27.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +5.77%E +1.56%K +2.14%G +0.123%4.5%2026-09-04 02:05
Bally Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -7.88%E -6.10%K -27.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +5.77%E +1.56%K +2.14%G +0.123%4.5%2026-09-04 02:05
betPARX🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -7.88%E -6.10%K -27.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +5.77%E +1.56%K +2.14%G +0.123%4.5%2026-09-04 02:05
TABtouch🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -8.59%E -6.71%K -30.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +4.34%E +1.19%K +1.64%G +0.071%5.5%2026-09-04 02:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -9.30%E -7.33%K -34.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV +4.34%E +1.19%K +1.64%G +0.071%6.1%2026-09-04 02:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -9.30%E -7.33%K -34.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV +4.34%E +1.19%K +1.64%G +0.071%6.1%2026-09-04 02:05
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.11%EV -11.45%E -9.23%K -47.69%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV +1.48%E +0.416%K +0.580%G +0.009%8.8%2026-09-04 02:05
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.22%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.78%EV +0.334%E +0.095%K +0.133%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-04 02:05
theScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.99%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 28.01%EV -0.809%E -0.233%K -0.328%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-03 22:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.73%E -4.34%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -1.38%E -0.400%K -0.564%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 01:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -5.73%E -4.34%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -1.38%E -0.400%K -0.564%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 01:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.67%EV -2.88%E -2.11%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.33%EV -1.67%E -0.484%K -0.683%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-04 02:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.67%EV -2.88%E -2.11%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.33%EV -1.67%E -0.484%K -0.683%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-04 02:05
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 71.40%EV -2.16%E -1.58%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.60%EV -2.24%E -0.654%K -0.925%G +0.000%2.2%2026-09-04 01:50
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV -2.88%E -2.11%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -2.81%E -0.826%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 01:29
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.30%E -3.21%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -2.81%E -0.826%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.81%E -0.826%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 22:05
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.81%E -0.826%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 02:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.81%E -0.826%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 22:10
BetAnything🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.81%E -0.826%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 01:30
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.81%E -0.826%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 18:50
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.73%E -4.34%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.81%E -0.826%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 22:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.16%E -5.51%K -23.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.81%E -0.826%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 18:54
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -4.30%E -3.21%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -3.67%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 02:05
GTbets🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -2.88%E -2.11%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -4.24%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 02:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -4.24%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 00:15
ReBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -4.30%E -3.21%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -4.24%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-03 20:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.24%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 22:10
Coolbet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.24%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 22:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -4.53%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 22:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.40%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.60%EV -5.10%E -1.54%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 01:59
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -5.67%E -1.72%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 00:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -5.67%E -1.72%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 00:04
Fanatics🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -5.67%E -1.72%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-03 22:10
TAB🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -5.67%E -1.72%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 01:19
BetMGM🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.30%E -3.21%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.67%E -1.72%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 02:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.67%E -1.72%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:50
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.67%E -1.72%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 18:50
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.67%E -1.72%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 19:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.73%E -4.34%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.67%E -1.72%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 01:35
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -7.16%E -5.51%K -23.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -5.67%E -1.72%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 23:40
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.60%EV -2.16%E -1.58%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.40%EV -5.95%E -1.81%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 01:00
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.87%EV -4.30%E -3.21%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 01:25
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.87%EV -4.30%E -3.21%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.13%EV -6.81%E -2.09%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 01:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -2.88%E -2.11%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -7.10%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 22:05
PlayUp🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -7.10%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 02:05
Fliff🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -7.10%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 02:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.10%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 01:59
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.10%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 22:10
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.10%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 02:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.10%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 22:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.10%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 22:10
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.02%E -3.77%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.10%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 18:50
Bet Right🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.59%E -2.66%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.53%E -2.66%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 02:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -5.73%E -4.34%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.53%E -2.66%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%EV -6.45%E -4.92%K -20.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%EV -9.96%E -3.16%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 01:43
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -7.16%E -5.51%K -23.87%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.41%EV -10.81%E -3.47%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 02:04
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -7.16%E -5.51%K -23.87%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.41%EV -10.81%E -3.47%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 02:03
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -1.45%E -1.05%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -11.39%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 02:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -1.45%E -1.05%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -11.39%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 02:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX◎1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71%0.2%2026-09-04 02:05
Novig◎1.38I 72.46%NM 72.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.88%0.5%2026-09-04 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-09-04 02:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-09-04 02:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-09-04 02:00
Polymarket◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-09-04 01:55
BetOpenly◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.80%3.64I 27.47%NM 27.20%1.0%2026-09-04 02:05
Matchbook◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-09-04 02:05
Kalshi◎1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-09-03 22:25
Smarkets◎1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%2.6%2026-09-04 02:05