The School of Odds

Kansas City Royals v San Diego Padres

2026-07-18 20:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Prediction 48.71%2.05fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -3.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.37%48.82%48.61%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.901.941.941.9953%52%52%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 51.29%1.95fair odd
EV -1.00%
Edge -0.519%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.18%51.39%51.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.781.861.861.9356%54%54%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%EV -3.08%E -1.55%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%EV -1.00%E -0.519%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-18 01:00
MyBookie.ag1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -3.56%E -1.80%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -4.08%E -2.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-18 01:04
FanDuel1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.56%E -1.80%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.59%E -2.47%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 00:50
Unibet (UK)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.05%E -2.06%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.11%E -2.76%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 01:00
Bovada1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.05%E -2.06%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.11%E -2.76%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 00:50
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -4.54%E -2.31%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -5.62%E -3.05%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 01:00
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.02%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.08%E -2.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 00:55
Bet Right1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.02%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.08%E -2.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 01:05
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.02%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.08%E -2.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 00:55
Hard Rock Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.02%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.08%E -2.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 01:15
ReBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.02%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.13%E -3.35%K -7.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 01:00
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.02%E -2.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.13%E -3.35%K -7.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 02:30
Betr (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.51%E -2.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.08%E -2.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-18 01:05
SportsBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.51%E -2.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.59%E -2.47%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 00:50
Betclic (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.51%E -2.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -6.13%E -3.35%K -7.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 00:58
Marathon Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.08%E -2.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 00:55
betano_uk1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.13%E -3.35%K -7.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-18 00:55
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -6.00%E -3.11%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.13%E -3.35%K -7.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-18 01:00
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.97%E -3.65%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.03%E -1.06%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 02:15
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.97%E -3.65%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.08%E -2.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 23:50
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.97%E -3.65%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.11%E -2.76%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 00:50
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.97%E -3.65%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.11%E -2.76%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 00:50
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.97%E -3.65%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.11%E -2.76%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 00:50
Unibet (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.97%E -3.65%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.67%E -4.26%K -9.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-18 02:15
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.54%E -1.34%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 23:50
PointsBet (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.54%E -1.34%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 23:50
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.37%EV -7.46%E -3.93%K -8.29%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -8.70%E -4.89%K -11.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 01:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%0.0%2026-07-17 23:50
Polymarket1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-07-18 02:20
ProphetX1.94I 51.55%NM 49.35%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.65%4.5%2026-07-18 01:35
Novig1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-07-18 02:20
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%10.0%2026-07-18 01:00
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 50.29%1.76I 56.82%NM 49.71%14.3%2026-07-18 02:20