L’École des cotes

Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-14 00:11 UTC

Score final : Houston Astros 4–3 Seattle Mariners

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

62 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Houston Astros (Local)

Prévision 44.24%2.26cote équitable
EV +23.88%
Avantage +8.53%
Kelly +13.27%
Croissance +3.17%

avec la cote maximale 2.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.12%43.59%44.16%47.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.962.192.152.8051.02%45.61%46.51%35.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Seattle Mariners (Visiteur)

Prévision 55.76%1.79cote équitable
EV +0.364%
Avantage +0.202%
Kelly +0.455%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 1.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.13%56.41%55.84%65.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.451.681.711.8068.97%59.40%58.48%55.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (62 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Unibet (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +23.88%E +8.53%K +13.27%G +3.17%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -19.15%E -13.21%K -42.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 00:10
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +12.82%E +5.03%K +8.27%G +1.06%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -16.36%E -10.91%K -32.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 00:10
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +12.82%E +5.03%K +8.27%G +1.06%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -16.36%E -10.91%K -32.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 00:10
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +12.82%E +5.03%K +8.27%G +1.06%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -16.36%E -10.91%K -32.73%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 00:10
Grosvenor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV +10.61%E +4.24%K +7.07%G +0.750%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -17.48%E -11.81%K -36.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 00:10
BetRivers2.48I 40.32%NM 37.22%EV +9.72%E +3.92%K +6.57%G +0.638%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.78%EV -18.04%E -12.27%K -38.37%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-14 00:10
LeoVegas2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV +8.39%E +3.43%K +5.79%G +0.486%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -18.04%E -12.27%K -38.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV +8.39%E +3.43%K +5.79%G +0.486%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -19.15%E -13.21%K -42.56%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-14 00:10
GTbets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV +1.76%E +0.764%K +1.35%G +0.024%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-13 23:55
Everygame2.27I 44.05%NM 43.25%EV +0.430%E +0.189%K +0.339%G +0.001%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.75%EV -3.54%E -2.05%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-13 23:55
Pinnacle2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%EV +0.430%E +0.189%K +0.339%G +0.001%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-13 23:50
LowVig.ag2.27I 44.05%NM 42.96%EV +0.430%E +0.189%K +0.339%G +0.001%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.04%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-13 23:50
BetOnline.ag2.27I 44.05%NM 42.96%EV +0.430%E +0.189%K +0.339%G +0.001%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.04%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-13 23:50
BetAnything2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -0.012%E -0.005%K -0.010%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-13 23:45
Fliff2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -0.455%E -0.202%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -11.35%E -7.14%K -19.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-14 00:10
1xBet2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%EV -0.897%E -0.401%K -0.724%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%EV -2.98%E -1.71%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-13 23:45
BetUS2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -0.897%E -0.401%K -0.724%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -3.54%E -2.05%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-13 22:55
Bovada2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -1.78%E -0.803%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -5.77%E -3.41%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-13 23:40
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.67%E -1.21%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-13 22:55
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.67%E -1.21%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.77%E -3.41%K -8.36%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-13 22:55
Dabble (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.67%E -1.21%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.33%E -3.77%K -9.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-13 22:55
Marathon Bet2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -3.11%E -1.42%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -6.33%E -3.77%K -9.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-14 00:09
MyBookie.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.55%E -1.63%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-13 23:15
Caesars2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.55%E -1.63%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-13 21:00
BetMGM2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.55%E -1.63%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-13 23:35
FanDuel2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.44%E -2.05%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -2.98%E -1.71%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-13 22:40
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -2.42%E -1.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-13 21:14
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -2.42%E -1.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-14 00:10
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 00:00
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-13 23:05
Coolbet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 00:00
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.21%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 00:00
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.21%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 23:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.21%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 23:35
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.21%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 23:35
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.21%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-13 23:35
NordicBet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.21%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 00:10
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.77%E -3.41%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 00:10
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -4.88%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.33%E -3.77%K -9.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 00:10
SportsBet2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -5.76%E -2.71%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-13 22:40
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.21%E -2.93%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 00:10
betPARX2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.21%E -2.93%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 00:10
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.21%E -2.93%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 00:10
Betsson2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.21%E -2.93%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 00:10
ReBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -7.09%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.31%E -0.739%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-13 20:25
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.09%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.54%E -2.05%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-13 17:50
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.09%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 00:10
TABtouch2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.09%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 00:10
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.09%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.21%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-13 17:00
Bally Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -7.98%E -3.83%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -5.21%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 00:10
LiveScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -9.30%E -4.54%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -1.31%E -0.739%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 00:00
Unibet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -9.30%E -4.54%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -1.31%E -0.739%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 00:10
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -9.30%E -4.54%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -1.31%E -0.739%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 00:10
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -9.30%E -4.54%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -3.54%E -2.05%K -4.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-13 20:24
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -9.30%E -4.54%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 00:00
Hard Rock Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.30%E -4.54%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-14 00:10
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -9.30%E -4.54%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 00:10
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -9.30%E -4.54%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 00:10
Virgin Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -10.63%E -5.26%K -10.42%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -2.42%E -1.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-14 00:10
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.52%E -5.76%K -11.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -2.42%E -1.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 00:10
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -11.52%E -5.76%K -11.52%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -8.56%E -5.22%K -13.37%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-14 00:10
DraftKings1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -13.29%E -6.78%K -13.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV +0.364%E +0.202%K +0.455%G +0.002%6.6%2026-05-14 00:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
ProphetX2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-05-14 00:10
Novig2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%0.7%2026-05-14 00:09
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08%0.7%2026-05-14 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%1.1%2026-05-13 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%1.1%2026-05-14 00:10
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%1.1%2026-05-14 00:10
Polymarket2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%1.1%2026-05-14 00:10
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36%1.4%2026-05-14 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.14%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.86%1.7%2026-05-14 00:10
BetOpenly2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.99%3.3%2026-05-13 23:45