Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners

Início: 2026-08-16 23:20 UTC

Final: Houston Astros 2–3 Seattle Mariners

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

61 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Houston Astros (Local)

Previsão 53.75%1.86odd justa
EV -1.64%
Vantagem -0.895%
Kelly -1.97%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.83

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
52.00%53.67%53.87%55.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.681.781.771.8359.52%56.32%56.50%54.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Seattle Mariners (Visitante)

Previsão 46.25%2.16odd justa
EV -0.561%
Vantagem -0.261%
Kelly -0.488%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.15

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
44.74%46.33%46.13%48.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.072.082.1551.28%48.25%48.08%46.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Houston Astros (Local): 53.75%; Seattle Mariners (Visitante): 46.25%. Para Seattle Mariners (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.16. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.15, com valor esperado de -0.561%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (61 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%EV -1.64%E -0.895%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%EV -1.95%E -0.919%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-16 22:59
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -1.64%E -0.895%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%EV -4.26%E -2.06%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-16 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -1.64%E -0.895%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -6.57%E -3.25%K -6.45%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-16 23:20
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%EV -2.18%E -1.20%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%EV -1.49%E -0.698%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-16 23:10
Caesars🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81%EV -2.18%E -1.20%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19%EV -1.95%E -0.919%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-16 23:19
BetUS🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -2.18%E -1.20%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -2.41%E -1.14%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-16 22:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -2.18%E -1.20%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 21:15
FanDuel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18%EV -2.71%E -1.50%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82%EV -1.02%E -0.478%K -0.898%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-16 21:50
GTbets🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 54.06%EV -2.71%E -1.50%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.94%EV -1.49%E -0.698%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-16 23:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -2.71%E -1.50%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -1.95%E -0.919%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-16 23:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -2.71%E -1.50%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -1.95%E -0.919%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-16 23:20
BetAnything🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.59%EV -2.71%E -1.50%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.41%EV -3.34%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-16 22:55
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.561%E -0.261%K -0.488%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-16 22:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.561%E -0.261%K -0.488%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-16 21:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-16 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-16 14:54
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-16 22:45
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-16 22:40
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-16 22:39
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.57%E -3.25%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 22:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.57%E -3.25%K -6.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 22:44
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 22:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 23:19
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 23:19
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -8.42%E -4.25%K -8.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 23:20
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 23:09
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.25%E -1.81%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 23:09
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -4.33%E -2.43%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -1.02%E -0.478%K -0.898%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-16 23:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -4.33%E -2.43%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -1.02%E -0.478%K -0.898%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-16 23:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -4.33%E -2.43%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-16 23:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.86%E -2.75%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-16 22:55
Bet Right🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.86%E -2.75%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.72%E -2.29%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 22:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -1.95%E -0.919%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-16 23:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -1.95%E -0.919%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-16 23:14
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -3.34%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-16 23:05
Coolbet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -3.80%E -1.83%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 22:04
NordicBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -4.26%E -2.06%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 21:04
Betsson🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -4.26%E -2.06%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 21:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 23:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 21:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -5.40%E -3.07%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 22:59
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -0.561%E -0.261%K -0.488%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-16 22:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 23:14
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 23:15
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 23:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 23:14
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 23:15
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 23:14
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.80%E -1.83%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 21:49
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.80%E -1.83%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 22:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.80%E -1.83%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 21:59
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 13:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 13:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.94%E -3.39%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 13:39
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.48%E -3.72%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 22:04
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -7.01%E -4.05%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.19%E -2.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-16 21:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -7.01%E -4.05%K -9.61%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -7.96%E -4.00%K -8.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 23:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -7.55%E -4.39%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -4.26%E -2.06%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 22:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -7.55%E -4.39%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -4.26%E -2.06%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 22:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.63%E -5.07%K -12.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -2.87%E -1.37%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 22:55
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -9.70%E -5.77%K -14.27%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV -6.57%E -3.25%K -6.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-16 23:14
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
BetOpenly◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.85%2.17I 46.08%NM 46.15%-0.2%2026-08-16 23:19
ProphetX◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.11%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.89%0.4%2026-08-16 23:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%0.6%2026-08-16 23:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%0.6%2026-08-16 23:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.86%0.9%2026-08-16 23:20
Polymarket◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-16 13:34
Novig◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-16 23:20
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.4%2026-08-16 23:20
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.04%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.96%1.7%2026-08-16 23:05
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-08-16 23:00