The School of Odds

Detroit Tigers v Athletics

2026-07-09 22:41 — MLB

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Detroit Tigers (Local)

Prediction 56.28%1.78fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.97%56.28%56.27%56.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.74MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
54.97%1.819Min
56.85%1.759Max
56.28%1.777Mean
56.27%1.777Median
56.28%1.777IQM
56.31%1.776Margin-weighted

Athletics (Visit)

Prediction 43.72%2.29fair odd
EV -0.751%
Edge -0.331%
Kelly -0.591%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%43.72%43.73%45.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.182.27MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
43.15%2.317Min
45.03%2.221Max
43.72%2.287Mean
43.73%2.287Median
43.72%2.287IQM
43.69%2.289Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

BookmakerDetroit Tigers (Local) ▼Athletics (Visit)MarginUpdated
1xBet1.74I 57.47% NM 56.28%EV -2.08% E -1.19% K -2.81% G +0.000%2.24I 44.64% NM 43.72%EV -2.06% E -0.921% K -1.66% G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-09 00:40
GTbets1.73I 57.80% NM 56.75%EV -2.64% E -1.53% K -3.62% G +0.000%2.27I 44.05% NM 43.25%EV -0.751% E -0.331% K -0.591% G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-08 23:10
BetOnline.ag1.73I 57.80% NM 56.42%EV -2.64% E -1.53% K -3.62% G +0.000%2.24I 44.64% NM 43.58%EV -2.06% E -0.921% K -1.66% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-08 23:15
LowVig.ag1.73I 57.80% NM 56.42%EV -2.64% E -1.53% K -3.62% G +0.000%2.24I 44.64% NM 43.58%EV -2.06% E -0.921% K -1.66% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-08 23:10
BetUS1.73I 57.80% NM 56.42%EV -2.64% E -1.53% K -3.62% G +0.000%2.24I 44.64% NM 43.58%EV -2.06% E -0.921% K -1.66% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-08 23:24
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14% NM 56.68%EV -3.20% E -1.86% K -4.45% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 43.32%EV -1.63% E -0.722% K -1.30% G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-08 23:40
FanDuel1.72I 58.14% NM 55.90%EV -3.20% E -1.86% K -4.45% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 44.10%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-08 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14% NM 55.56%EV -3.20% E -1.86% K -4.45% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.44%EV -6.00% E -2.79% K -5.22% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 01:30
Neds1.72I 58.14% NM 55.56%EV -3.20% E -1.86% K -4.45% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.44%EV -6.00% E -2.79% K -5.22% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 01:29
SportsBet1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -3.20% E -1.86% K -4.45% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -8.18% E -3.90% K -7.44% G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 18:40
BetAnything1.71I 58.48% NM 56.38%EV -3.76% E -2.20% K -5.30% G +0.000%2.21I 45.25% NM 43.62%EV -3.37% E -1.53% K -2.79% G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-09 01:34
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48% NM 56.27%EV -3.76% E -2.20% K -5.30% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.73%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 18:39
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48% NM 56.27%EV -3.76% E -2.20% K -5.30% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.73%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 23:40
Betway1.71I 58.48% NM 56.27%EV -3.76% E -2.20% K -5.30% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.73%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 01:19
MyBookie.ag1.71I 58.48% NM 56.15%EV -3.76% E -2.20% K -5.30% G +0.000%2.19I 45.66% NM 43.85%EV -4.25% E -1.94% K -3.57% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 22:43
Caesars1.71I 58.48% NM 56.04%EV -3.76% E -2.20% K -5.30% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.96%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-08 19:35
Coral1.70I 58.82% NM 56.41%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.59%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 20:29
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82% NM 56.41%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.59%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 20:30
Unibet (SE)1.70I 58.82% NM 56.41%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.59%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 01:20
Unibet (NL)1.70I 58.82% NM 56.41%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.59%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 01:19
Svenska Spel1.70I 58.82% NM 56.41%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.59%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 01:25
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82% NM 56.19%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.81%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 18:35
Bet Right1.70I 58.82% NM 56.19%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.81%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 19:35
Unibet1.70I 58.82% NM 56.19%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.81%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 01:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82% NM 56.19%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.81%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 01:20
Casumo1.70I 58.82% NM 56.19%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.81%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 01:25
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82% NM 56.19%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.81%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 01:20
Bally Bet1.70I 58.82% NM 56.19%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.81%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 01:19
betPARX1.70I 58.82% NM 56.19%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.81%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 01:25
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82% NM 55.84%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.16%EV -6.00% E -2.79% K -5.22% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 19:35
PlayUp1.70I 58.82% NM 55.84%EV -4.33% E -2.55% K -6.18% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.16%EV -6.00% E -2.79% K -5.22% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 18:39
Bovada1.69I 59.17% NM 56.67%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.21I 45.25% NM 43.33%EV -3.37% E -1.53% K -2.79% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-08 23:35
Fanatics1.69I 59.17% NM 56.56%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.44%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:19
Hard Rock Bet1.69I 59.17% NM 56.56%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.44%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 20:34
DraftKings1.69I 59.17% NM 56.44%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.19I 45.66% NM 43.56%EV -4.25% E -1.94% K -3.57% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 01:29
BetMGM1.69I 59.17% NM 56.33%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.67%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:29
Marathon Bet1.69I 59.17% NM 56.22%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.17I 46.08% NM 43.78%EV -5.12% E -2.36% K -4.38% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 00:29
NordicBet1.69I 59.17% NM 56.10%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.16I 46.30% NM 43.90%EV -5.56% E -2.57% K -4.79% G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-09 01:45
Betsson1.69I 59.17% NM 56.10%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.16I 46.30% NM 43.90%EV -5.56% E -2.57% K -4.79% G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-09 01:45
Fliff1.69I 59.17% NM 55.99%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.01%EV -6.00% E -2.79% K -5.22% G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 23:20
ReBet1.69I 59.17% NM 55.99%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.01%EV -6.00% E -2.79% K -5.22% G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 22:44
Betclic (FR)1.69I 59.17% NM 55.87%EV -4.89% E -2.89% K -7.09% G +0.000%2.14I 46.73% NM 44.13%EV -6.43% E -3.01% K -5.64% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 18:44
LiveScore Bet1.68I 59.52% NM 56.48%EV -5.45% E -3.25% K -8.02% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.52%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:20
Virgin Bet1.68I 59.52% NM 56.48%EV -5.45% E -3.25% K -8.02% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.52%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:19
BetRivers1.68I 59.52% NM 56.48%EV -5.45% E -3.25% K -8.02% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.52%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:19
TABtouch1.68I 59.52% NM 56.48%EV -5.45% E -3.25% K -8.02% G +0.000%2.18I 45.87% NM 43.52%EV -4.69% E -2.15% K -3.97% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 01:20
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52% NM 56.14%EV -5.45% E -3.25% K -8.02% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 43.86%EV -6.00% E -2.79% K -5.22% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-08 18:45
888sport1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -6.02% E -3.60% K -8.98% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 18:34
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -6.02% E -3.60% K -8.98% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 18:35
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -6.02% E -3.60% K -8.98% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 18:34
William Hill1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -6.02% E -3.60% K -8.98% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -3.81% E -1.73% K -3.18% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 22:55
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88% NM 56.28%EV -6.02% E -3.60% K -8.98% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 43.72%EV -6.00% E -2.79% K -5.22% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-08 18:30
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88% NM 56.28%EV -6.02% E -3.60% K -8.98% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 43.72%EV -6.00% E -2.79% K -5.22% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-08 18:35
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24% NM 56.32%EV -6.58% E -3.96% K -9.97% G +0.000%2.14I 46.73% NM 43.68%EV -6.43% E -3.01% K -5.64% G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-09 01:19
Unibet (FR)1.65I 60.61% NM 55.41%EV -7.14% E -4.33% K -10.99% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 44.59%EV -10.37% E -5.06% K -9.88% G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-08 22:45
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73% NM 55.86%EV -8.83% E -5.45% K -14.24% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 44.14%EV -10.37% E -5.06% K -9.88% G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-08 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerDetroit Tigers (Local)Athletics (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.75I 57.14% NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05% NM 43.53%1.2%2026-07-08 21:35
Kalshi1.75I 57.14% NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05% NM 43.53%1.2%2026-07-08 20:40
Novig1.74I 57.47% NM 56.61%2.27I 44.05% NM 43.39%1.5%2026-07-09 00:55
ProphetX1.75I 57.14% NM 56.25%2.25I 44.44% NM 43.75%1.6%2026-07-09 01:00
Matchbook1.72I 58.14% NM 56.57%2.24I 44.64% NM 43.43%2.8%2026-07-09 01:30
Smarkets1.66I 60.24% NM 55.38%2.06I 48.54% NM 44.62%8.8%2026-07-09 02:30