The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cleveland Guardians v Chicago Cubs

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 46.09%2.17fair odd
EV -0.441%
Edge -0.204%
Kelly -0.380%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.18%46.18%46.09%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.082.052.1650.00%47.99%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Cubs (Visit)

Prediction 53.91%1.86fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%53.82%53.91%54.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.791.791.8057.14%55.98%55.87%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 46.09%; Chicago Cubs (Visit): 53.91%. For Cleveland Guardians (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.16, with an expected value of -0.441%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -0.441%E -0.204%K -0.380%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -4.04%E -2.27%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-05 02:32
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -0.901%E -0.419%K -0.784%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -3.51%E -1.96%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-05 11:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -0.901%E -0.419%K -0.784%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -3.51%E -1.96%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-05 11:35
Bovada🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.28%E -1.08%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.66%E -3.24%K -7.55%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 03:25
MyBookie.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -3.67%E -1.75%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -4.04%E -2.27%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-05 01:14
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.51%E -2.69%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.97%E -1.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 03:51
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.51%E -2.69%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.97%E -1.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 03:51
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.51%E -2.69%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.97%E -1.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 03:51
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.51%E -2.69%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.04%E -2.27%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 03:51
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.51%E -2.69%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.04%E -2.27%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 03:51
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.82%E -3.91%K -7.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.97%E -1.65%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 05:06
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.