Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds v Athletics

2026-08-05 22:40 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Predicción 56.05%1.78momio equitativo
EV -0.797%
Ventaja -0.450%
Kelly -1.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.97%56.00%56.07%56.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.701.701.7761.73%58.78%58.82%56.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Athletics (Visitante)

Predicción 43.95%2.28momio equitativo
EV -1.11%
Ventaja -0.491%
Kelly -0.884%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.15%44.00%43.93%45.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.172.182.2548.78%45.99%45.87%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 56.05%; Athletics (Visitante): 43.95%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.78. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.77, con un valor esperado de -0.797%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -0.797%E -0.450%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-05 00:14
1xBet1.76I 56.82%NM 55.67%EV -1.36%E -0.771%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.33%EV -2.86%E -1.30%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-04 23:44
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 55.70%EV -1.92%E -1.10%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.30%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-04 23:55
TAB1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -1.92%E -1.10%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-05 02:34
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.48%E -1.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.11%E -0.491%K -0.884%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-04 23:44
GTbets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.48%E -1.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.11%E -0.491%K -0.884%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-04 23:00
LowVig.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.48%E -1.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.42%E -1.09%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-04 23:00
BetOnline.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.48%E -1.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.42%E -1.09%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-04 23:00
BetUS1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.48%E -1.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.42%E -1.09%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-04 23:05
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -2.48%E -1.42%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -5.06%E -2.34%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-04 20:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.60%E -2.09%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:29
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.60%E -2.09%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:29
Bovada1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.60%E -2.09%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:40
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.60%E -2.09%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.82%E -3.22%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 02:40
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.60%E -2.09%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.82%E -3.22%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 02:40
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.60%E -2.09%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.82%E -3.22%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 02:35
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.60%E -2.09%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.70%E -3.67%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 20:34
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.16%E -2.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 23:44
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.16%E -2.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 23:35
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.16%E -2.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 22:49
BetAnything1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.16%E -2.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-05 01:59
MyBookie.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -4.16%E -2.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -3.74%E -1.71%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 01:25
888sport1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.16%E -2.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 02:34
Mr Green (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.16%E -2.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 02:35
888sport (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.16%E -2.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 02:34
Marathon Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.16%E -2.43%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.94%E -2.78%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 00:30
BetRivers1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -1.98%E -0.890%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-05 01:19
Unibet (NL)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -1.98%E -0.890%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-05 01:19
Unibet (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -1.98%E -0.890%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-05 01:20
Svenska Spel1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -1.98%E -0.890%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-05 01:20
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 01:35
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 01:30
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.18%E -1.92%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 23:45
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.18%E -1.92%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 23:05
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.62%E -2.13%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 02:34
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 23:45
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 02:35
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.72%E -2.78%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 23:44
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.28%E -3.12%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.18%E -1.92%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:29
Fliff1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.28%E -3.12%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 20:14
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.28%E -3.12%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 23:44
Betclic (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -5.28%E -3.12%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -5.94%E -2.78%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 23:45
Dabble (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.84%E -3.48%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:39
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.84%E -3.48%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:19
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.84%E -3.48%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:20
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.84%E -3.48%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:20
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.84%E -3.48%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:19
Bally Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.84%E -3.48%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.84%E -3.48%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:24
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.84%E -3.48%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:24
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.40%E -3.83%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:24
betano_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.40%E -3.83%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 23:44
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.40%E -3.83%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 23:44
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.40%E -3.83%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 20:34
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.40%E -3.83%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 02:39
Virgin Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -6.96%E -4.19%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -4.62%E -2.13%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 01:19
LiveScore Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -6.96%E -4.19%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -4.62%E -2.13%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 01:20
Unibet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.52%E -4.56%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.90%E -4.83%K -9.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-04 23:45
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.56%EV -8.08%E -4.93%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.44%EV -9.90%E -4.83%K -9.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-04 23:45
Grosvenor1.62I 61.73%NM 56.68%EV -9.20%E -5.68%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.32%EV -6.82%E -3.22%K -6.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-05 01:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.76I 56.82%NM 56.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 43.14%-0.1%2026-08-05 01:35
Polymarket1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-08-04 20:15
Novig1.77I 56.50%NM 55.97%2.25I 44.44%NM 44.03%0.9%2026-08-05 01:15
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-08-04 22:10
ProphetX1.77I 56.50%NM 55.75%2.23I 44.84%NM 44.25%1.3%2026-08-05 01:30
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 55.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.30%2.6%2026-08-05 01:35
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 55.38%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.62%8.8%2026-08-05 02:40