Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago White Sox v Toronto Blue Jays

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago White Sox (Local)

Prediction 36.90%2.71fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -0.831%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.90%36.90%36.90%38.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.582.652.6540.82%38.71%37.74%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Blue Jays (Visit)

Prediction 63.10%1.58fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -4.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.40%63.10%63.10%63.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.551.551.5564.94%64.66%64.52%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago White Sox (Local): 36.90%; Toronto Blue Jays (Visit): 63.10%. For Chicago White Sox (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -2.20%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.90%EV -2.20%E -0.831%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.10%EV -2.20%E -1.42%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-01 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.90%EV -2.20%E -0.831%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.10%EV -2.20%E -1.42%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-01 17:00
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -9.58%E -3.91%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-01 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.0%2026-04-01 16:55