Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago White Sox v Cincinnati Reds

2026-08-12 23:40 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago White Sox (Local)

Predicción 57.21%1.75momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.597%
Kelly -1.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.73

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.16%57.20%57.14%58.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.661.661.7364.10%60.20%60.24%57.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visitante)

Predicción 42.79%2.34momio equitativo
EV -0.720%
Ventaja -0.310%
Kelly -0.545%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.41%42.80%42.86%43.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.242.252.3248.78%44.56%44.44%43.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Chicago White Sox (Local): 57.21%; Cincinnati Reds (Visitante): 42.79%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.34. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.32, con un valor esperado de -0.720%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
GTbets🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.75%EV -1.03%E -0.597%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.25%EV -2.86%E -1.26%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-11 18:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -1.03%E -0.597%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -4.14%E -1.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-11 18:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -1.03%E -0.597%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -4.14%E -1.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-11 18:19
BetUS🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -1.03%E -0.597%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -4.14%E -1.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-12 01:39
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -2.18%E -1.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -1.58%E -0.685%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-11 23:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -2.18%E -1.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -1.58%E -0.685%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-11 20:54
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 57.25%EV -2.18%E -1.27%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.75%EV -2.00%E -0.875%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-12 00:44
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.39%EV -2.75%E -1.62%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.61%EV -2.00%E -0.875%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-12 00:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.32%E -1.96%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-11 19:05
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.32%E -1.96%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-11 19:14
BetAnything🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -3.89%E -2.32%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -2.86%E -1.26%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-12 02:24
MyBookie.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.89%E -2.32%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.14%E -1.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-12 02:13
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.89%E -2.32%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.14%E -1.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-12 01:10
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -3.89%E -2.32%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.57%E -2.05%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-12 01:09
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -3.89%E -2.32%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -5.00%E -2.25%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-11 23:30
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.89%E -2.32%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-11 23:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.89%E -2.32%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 02:35
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.89%E -2.32%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 02:39
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.46%E -2.67%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 02:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.46%E -2.67%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 02:39
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.46%E -2.67%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 02:39
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.46%E -2.67%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-11 23:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.46%E -2.67%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -5.00%E -2.25%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-11 23:30
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.46%E -2.67%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 03:09
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -5.04%E -3.03%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.14%E -1.85%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-11 23:34
Coolbet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.04%E -3.03%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.57%E -2.05%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 23:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -5.04%E -3.03%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -5.00%E -2.25%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 00:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.04%E -3.03%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-11 23:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -5.04%E -3.03%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -6.28%E -2.87%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-11 23:33
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 23:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 23:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 23:35
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-11 23:33
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-11 23:45
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-11 19:00
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 01:10
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.61%E -3.40%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 01:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -6.18%E -3.77%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -0.720%E -0.310%K -0.545%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 00:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -6.18%E -3.77%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -0.720%E -0.310%K -0.545%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 00:44
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -6.18%E -3.77%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -0.720%E -0.310%K -0.545%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 00:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -6.18%E -3.77%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -0.720%E -0.310%K -0.545%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 00:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.18%E -3.77%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-11 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.75%E -4.14%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.58%E -0.685%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 00:44
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.75%E -4.14%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.58%E -0.685%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 00:44
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.75%E -4.14%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.58%E -0.685%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 00:44
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.75%E -4.14%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.58%E -0.685%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 00:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.75%E -4.14%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.58%E -0.685%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 00:44
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.75%E -4.14%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.58%E -0.685%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 00:44
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.75%E -4.14%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.43%E -1.07%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 00:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -7.32%E -4.52%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -10.13%E -4.83%K -9.21%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-11 23:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -7.90%E -4.90%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 00:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -7.90%E -4.90%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 00:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -8.47%E -5.29%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -12.27%E -5.99%K -11.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-11 19:04
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -10.76%E -6.90%K -19.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -5.86%E -2.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 00:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95%0.2%2026-08-12 02:39
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-08-12 00:45
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-08-12 02:55
ProphetX1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.6%2026-08-12 02:10
Novig1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%2.0%2026-08-12 03:15
Matchbook1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%5.5%2026-08-12 01:45
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 56.84%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.16%9.3%2026-08-12 03:15

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