The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Chicago White Sox v Baltimore Orioles

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 23:41 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago White Sox (Local)

Prediction 44.16%2.26fair odd
EV -0.638%
Edge -0.284%
Kelly -0.511%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.42%44.18%44.20%45.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.172.152.2547.62%46.13%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visit)

Prediction 55.84%1.79fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.658%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.97%55.82%55.80%56.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.711.711.7760.61%58.34%58.48%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago White Sox (Local): 44.16%; Baltimore Orioles (Visit): 55.84%. For Chicago White Sox (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -0.638%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -0.638%E -0.284%K -0.511%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.84%E -1.63%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.9%2026-04-06 20:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.96%E -0.884%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.84%E -1.63%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-06 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.96%E -0.884%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.84%E -1.63%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-06 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.85%E -1.29%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.51%E -2.64%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-06 18:35
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.70%EV -3.29%E -1.50%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.30%EV -1.16%E -0.658%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-06 19:20
FanDuel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.73%E -1.71%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -3.96%E -2.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-06 18:30
MyBookie.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.73%E -1.71%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -3.96%E -2.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-06 18:40
Bet Right🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.73%E -1.71%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.07%E -2.98%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-06 18:45
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.05%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.84%E -1.63%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-06 20:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.05%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.51%E -2.64%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 18:35
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.05%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.51%E -2.64%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.05%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.51%E -2.64%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.05%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.51%E -2.64%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 18:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.05%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.07%E -2.98%K -7.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 18:44
Fliff🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.05%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.63%E -3.33%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 18:30
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.05%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.75%E -4.04%K -10.07%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-06 18:34
ReBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.05%E -2.35%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 18:35
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.38%E -3.01%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.96%E -2.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 19:00
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.26%E -3.46%K -6.60%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.96%E -2.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-06 18:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.2%2026-04-06 20:00
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 44.57%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.43%10.0%2026-04-06 18:35