Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Athletics v Baltimore Orioles

Inicio: 2026-08-30 02:06 UTC

Final: Athletics 3–5 Baltimore Orioles

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

66 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Athletics (Local)

Predicción 43.02%2.32momio equitativo
EV +0.242%
Ventaja +0.104%
Kelly +0.182%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.33%43.00%43.04%44.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.142.222.202.3346.73%45.00%45.45%42.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visitante)

Predicción 56.98%1.76momio equitativo
EV -0.859%
Ventaja -0.493%
Kelly -1.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.84%57.00%56.96%58.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.681.681.7461.73%59.66%59.52%57.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Athletics (Local): 43.02%; Baltimore Orioles (Visitante): 56.98%. Para Athletics (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.32. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.33, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.242%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (66 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
GTbets🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV +0.242%E +0.104%K +0.182%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -3.71%E -2.19%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-30 02:05
DraftKings🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29%EV -0.189%E -0.081%K -0.143%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71%EV -3.14%E -1.85%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-29 23:30
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV -0.619%E -0.268%K -0.472%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -3.14%E -1.85%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-30 02:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -0.619%E -0.268%K -0.472%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -3.71%E -2.19%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-30 02:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 42.25%EV -0.619%E -0.268%K -0.472%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.75%EV -3.71%E -2.19%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-30 02:05
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -1.05%E -0.456%K -0.807%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -2.57%E -1.50%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-29 22:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -1.05%E -0.456%K -0.807%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -2.57%E -1.50%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-29 13:01
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.05%E -0.456%K -0.807%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.70%E -4.75%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 01:40
Caesars🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%EV -1.91%E -0.837%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%EV -2.00%E -1.16%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-29 22:55
Everygame🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%EV -1.91%E -0.837%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%EV -2.00%E -1.16%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-30 01:43
Bovada🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -1.91%E -0.837%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 02:04
BetAnything🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -2.34%E -1.03%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -3.14%E -1.85%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-30 02:05
BetUS🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV -2.77%E -1.23%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -2.57%E -1.50%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-30 01:14
theScore Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93%EV -2.77%E -1.23%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07%EV -3.14%E -1.85%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-29 13:04
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.14%E -1.85%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-29 22:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -3.14%E -1.85%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-29 22:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-30 00:05
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 02:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 02:00
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 01:59
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.20%E -1.42%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 02:00
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%EV -3.63%E -1.62%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%EV -0.859%E -0.493%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-30 01:30
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.06%E -1.82%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 22:40
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.06%E -1.82%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 22:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.06%E -1.82%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 22:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.06%E -1.82%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 22:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.06%E -1.82%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 22:10
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.06%E -1.82%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 22:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.06%E -1.82%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 22:10
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.06%E -1.82%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 22:10
SportsBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.06%E -1.82%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.42%E -3.26%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 22:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.48%EV -4.92%E -2.23%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.52%EV -3.14%E -1.85%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 23:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.57%E -1.50%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-29 19:25
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.14%E -1.85%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 13:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.14%E -1.85%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 22:35
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.71%E -2.19%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 01:35
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 13:20
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 13:20
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 01:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 02:00
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 02:00
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 02:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 10:00
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 21:50
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 13:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 13:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 13:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 13:20
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.85%E -2.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 22:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.42%E -3.26%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 01:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.42%E -3.26%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 21:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 00:25
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.35%E -2.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.70%E -4.75%K -12.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 23:40
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.21%E -2.85%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 01:05
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.21%E -2.85%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.28%E -2.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 01:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -6.21%E -2.85%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 22:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -6.21%E -2.85%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 22:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -6.64%E -3.06%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -3.71%E -2.19%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 01:25
ReBet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -7.07%E -3.27%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -6.56%E -4.00%K -10.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 02:04
Dabble (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.14%E -1.85%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 23:54
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 01:54
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 01:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 02:05
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.99%E -3.63%K -9.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 02:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -7.50%E -3.49%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.56%E -4.00%K -10.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 00:24
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%EV -7.93%E -3.71%K -6.96%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -7.70%E -4.75%K -12.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 22:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-08-30 02:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-08-30 02:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-08-30 02:05
Polymarket◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%1.1%2026-08-29 16:45
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%1.1%2026-08-29 21:35
Novig◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%1.1%2026-08-30 02:05
ProphetX◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%1.2%2026-08-30 02:05
BetOpenly◎2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%2.6%2026-08-30 02:04
Matchbook◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%2.6%2026-08-30 02:05
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.54%6.5%2026-08-30 02:05