默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins

开赛时间： 2026-09-15 01:41 UTC

最终结果： Arizona Diamondbacks 8–7 Miami Marlins

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

63 家博彩公司 (19 家纳入分析 )

55%

45%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Arizona Diamondbacks (主队)

预测 55.05%1.82公平赔率

EV -0.917%

优势 -0.510%

Kelly -1.15%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.80

博彩公司预测分布

53.05%55.02%55.27%56.68%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.661.741.741.8060.24%57.58%57.47%55.56%最小值均值中位数最大值

Miami Marlins (客队)

预测 44.95%2.22公平赔率

EV +1.15%

优势 +0.510%

Kelly +0.917%

增长率 +0.011%

假设最高赔率为 2.25

博彩公司预测分布

43.32%44.98%44.73%46.95%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.972.112.102.2550.76%47.29%47.62%44.44%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Arizona Diamondbacks (主队)：55.05%；Miami Marlins (客队)：44.95%。对于“Miami Marlins (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.22。当时有4家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.25，对应+1.15%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (63 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队	客队 ▼	利润率	更新时间
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -5.32%E -3.09%K -7.39%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32%EV +1.15%E +0.510%K +0.917%G +0.011%	2.6%	2026-09-15 01:40
LowVig.ag🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -5.32%E -3.09%K -7.39%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32%EV +1.15%E +0.510%K +0.917%G +0.011%	2.6%	2026-09-15 01:40
GTbets🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%	2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%EV +0.697%E +0.311%K +0.562%G +0.004%	1.8%	2026-09-15 00:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 56.03%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%EV +0.248%E +0.111%K +0.201%G +0.000%	2.0%	2026-09-15 00:45
BetUS🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -0.202%E -0.091%K -0.166%G +0.000%	2.5%	2026-09-15 01:39
Everygame🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -2.57%E -1.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -1.10%E -0.501%K -0.918%G +0.000%	2.0%	2026-09-15 00:27
BetAnything🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -1.10%E -0.501%K -0.918%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-09-15 01:40
Bovada🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -1.10%E -0.501%K -0.918%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 01:35
TAB🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -1.10%E -0.501%K -0.918%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 01:39
Caesars🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -2.00%E -0.918%K -1.70%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-15 01:24
1xBet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55%EV -0.917%E -0.510%K -1.15%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%EV -2.90%E -1.34%K -2.50%G +0.000%	1.9%	2026-09-13 23:35
Betsson🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -6.97%E -4.13%K -10.10%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -2.90%E -1.34%K -2.50%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-15 01:39
NordicBet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -6.97%E -4.13%K -10.10%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -2.90%E -1.34%K -2.50%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-15 01:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-13 19:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-13 20:30
Coral🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-14 23:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-14 23:30
Fanatics🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-14 23:25
888sport🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-14 23:25
888sport (SE)🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-14 23:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-14 23:25
BetMGM🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.87%E -3.43%K -8.27%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-14 23:29
betfred_uk🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-14 23:30
PlayUp🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.35%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-15 01:00
FanDuel🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.80%E -1.77%K -3.33%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-14 22:10
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.76%EV -3.12%E -1.77%K -4.10%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 45.24%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.76%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-09-14 23:25
Bet Right🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.70%E -2.22%K -4.19%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-14 23:25
SportsBet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -5.15%E -2.44%K -4.64%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-14 22:10
DraftKings🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.53%EV -6.97%E -4.13%K -10.10%G +0.000%	2.11I 47.39%NM 44.47%EV -5.15%E -2.44%K -4.64%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-09-15 01:40
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -2.02%E -1.13%K -2.59%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -5.60%E -2.67%K -5.09%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-09-15 01:40
ReBet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.57%E -1.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.60%E -2.67%K -5.09%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-14 22:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.60%E -2.67%K -5.09%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-15 01:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.60%E -2.67%K -5.09%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-14 10:05
Betr (AU)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.60%E -2.67%K -5.09%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-13 19:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.60%E -2.67%K -5.09%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-14 23:30
Neds🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.60%E -2.67%K -5.09%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-14 23:30
William Hill🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.60%E -2.67%K -5.09%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-13 21:49
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.32%E -3.09%K -7.39%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.60%E -2.67%K -5.09%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-14 23:40
Marathon Bet🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%EV -6.05%E -2.89%K -5.55%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-13 23:30
BetRivers🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -2.02%E -1.13%K -2.59%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -6.50%E -3.12%K -6.01%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 01:40
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -2.02%E -1.13%K -2.59%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -6.50%E -3.12%K -6.01%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 01:40
Svenska Spel🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -2.02%E -1.13%K -2.59%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -6.50%E -3.12%K -6.01%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 01:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -2.57%E -1.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -6.50%E -3.12%K -6.01%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-15 01:40
Casumo🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -2.57%E -1.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -6.50%E -3.12%K -6.01%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-15 01:40
ATG (SE)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -2.57%E -1.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -6.50%E -3.12%K -6.01%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-15 01:40
betPARX🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -2.57%E -1.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -6.50%E -3.12%K -6.01%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-15 01:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -2.57%E -1.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -6.50%E -3.12%K -6.01%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-15 01:39
TABtouch🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.12%E -1.77%K -4.10%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.95%E -3.36%K -6.49%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-15 01:40
Unibet🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -7.39%E -3.59%K -6.98%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-15 01:40
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -7.39%E -3.59%K -6.98%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-15 01:40
Bet Victor🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.84%E -3.83%K -7.47%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-15 01:39
betano_uk🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.67%E -2.10%K -4.89%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.84%E -3.83%K -7.47%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-15 01:39
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.84%E -3.83%K -7.47%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-15 01:40
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.84%E -3.83%K -7.47%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-15 01:40
Fliff🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.84%E -3.83%K -7.47%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-15 01:40
Betway🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.84%E -3.83%K -7.47%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-15 01:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.84%E -3.83%K -7.47%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-09-14 23:15
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -4.22%E -2.43%K -5.70%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -8.29%E -4.07%K -7.97%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-15 01:40
Grosvenor🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -4.77%E -2.76%K -6.53%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -8.29%E -4.07%K -7.97%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-09-15 01:40
Virgin Bet🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%EV -5.32%E -3.09%K -7.39%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%EV -8.29%E -4.07%K -7.97%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-09-15 01:40
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -6.42%E -3.78%K -9.17%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -8.29%E -4.07%K -7.97%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-09-15 01:17
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.57%E -1.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.09%E -5.05%K -10.09%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-14 23:25
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 54.27%EV -8.62%E -5.20%K -13.07%G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76%NM 45.73%EV -11.44%E -5.81%K -11.79%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-09-15 01:30

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (10)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%	2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%	0.4%	2026-09-15 01:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%	2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%	0.4%	2026-09-15 01:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%	2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%	0.4%	2026-09-15 01:35
Polymarket◎	1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%	2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%	0.9%	2026-09-14 23:00
Novig◎	1.77I 56.50%NM 55.97%	2.25I 44.44%NM 44.03%	0.9%	2026-09-15 01:40
Kalshi◎	1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%	2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%	1.2%	2026-09-15 01:40
Smarkets◎	1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%	2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%	2.4%	2026-09-15 01:40
BetOpenly◎	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%	2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%	2.9%	2026-09-15 01:39
Matchbook◎	1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%	3.1%	2026-09-15 01:40
ProphetX◎	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%	2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%	3.7%	2026-09-15 01:40

Arizona Diamondbacks v Miami Marlins

胜负盘

Arizona Diamondbacks (主队)

Miami Marlins (客队)

博彩公司赔率 (63 家博彩公司)

博彩交易所 ? (10)

博彩交易所 (10)