Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester Red Sox v Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

53%

47%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester Red Sox (Local)

Prediction 53.05%1.88fair odd

EV -5.57%

Edge -3.13%

Kelly -7.14%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.82%53.02%53.05%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.731.761.771.7857.80%56.71%56.50%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Visit)

Prediction 46.95%2.13fair odd

EV -6.10%

Edge -3.05%

Kelly -6.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.38%46.98%46.95%47.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.972.002.002.0050.76%50.13%50.00%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worcester Red Sox (Local): 53.05%; Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Visit): 46.95%. For Worcester Red Sox (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.78, with an expected value of -5.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.57%E -3.13%K -7.14%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.10%E -3.05%K -6.10%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-09 13:04
Caesars🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.10%E -3.45%K -7.92%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.10%E -3.05%K -6.10%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-09 13:08
theScore Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.10%E -3.45%K -7.92%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.10%E -3.05%K -6.10%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-09 13:09
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.10%E -3.45%K -7.92%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.10%E -3.05%K -6.10%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-09 13:15
1xBet🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -6.63%E -3.77%K -8.73%G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -7.51%E -3.81%K -7.74%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-09 14:14
William Hill🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.22%E -4.75%K -11.26%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.10%E -3.05%K -6.10%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-09 13:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.