Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester Red Sox v Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 16:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester Red Sox (Local)

Prediction 64.52%1.55fair odd

EV +10.33%

Edge +6.04%

Kelly +14.55%

Growth +1.50%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.67%64.52%69.28%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.261.471.331.7179.37%68.21%75.19%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Visit)

Prediction 35.48%2.82fair odd

EV +24.17%

Edge +6.91%

Kelly +9.67%

Growth +2.34%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.47%35.48%30.72%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.733.003.5048.78%36.66%33.33%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worcester Red Sox (Local): 64.52%; Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Visit): 35.48%. For Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bovada🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -18.70%E -14.84%K -71.93%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV +24.17%E +6.91%K +9.67%G +2.34%	7.9%	2026-05-06 15:56
Betway🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -14.18%E -10.67%K -42.98%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV +6.43%E +2.14%K +3.22%G +0.207%	8.5%	2026-05-06 15:59
theScore Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -14.18%E -10.67%K -42.98%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV +6.43%E +2.14%K +3.22%G +0.207%	8.5%	2026-05-06 16:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV +10.33%E +6.04%K +14.55%G +1.50%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -25.85%E -12.37%K -23.72%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-06 15:20
William Hill🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV +9.69%E +5.70%K +13.84%G +1.34%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -27.27%E -13.30%K -25.97%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-06 15:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.