The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Worcester Red Sox v Rochester Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester Red Sox (Local)

Prediction 44.91%2.23fair odd
EV -5.69%
Edge -2.71%
Kelly -5.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%44.85%44.88%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.082.092.1048.78%48.13%47.85%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 55.09%1.82fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -5.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%55.15%55.12%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.701.711.7459.88%58.67%58.48%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worcester Red Sox (Local): 44.91%; Rochester Red Wings (Visit): 55.09%. For Rochester Red Wings (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.74, with an expected value of -4.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.80%E -3.39%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 11:24
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.80%E -3.39%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 11:24
Caesars2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.80%E -3.39%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-11 11:36
BetRivers2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.00%E -4.79%K -11.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-11 13:45
BetOnline.ag2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -6.14%E -2.94%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -5.80%E -3.39%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 11:54
1xBet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%EV -7.48%E -3.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 11:49
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.15%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 14:47
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-11 11:44
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.90%E -4.08%K -10.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-11 17:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.