The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Worcester Red Sox v Rochester Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester Red Sox (Local)

Prediction 51.47%1.94fair odd
EV -4.78%
Edge -2.58%
Kelly -5.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.24%51.47%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.821.801.8555.56%55.07%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 48.53%2.06fair odd
EV -5.37%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -5.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%48.76%48.53%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.901.911.9554.05%52.52%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worcester Red Sox (Local): 51.47%; Rochester Red Wings (Visit): 48.53%. For Worcester Red Sox (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -4.78%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.78%E -2.58%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.22%E -5.52%K -12.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-19 22:49
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -5.81%E -3.17%K -7.00%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.85%E -3.02%K -6.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-19 22:49
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.35%E -4.08%K -9.19%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.37%E -2.75%K -5.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-19 22:49
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.35%E -4.08%K -9.19%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.31%E -3.83%K -8.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-19 22:49
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -7.35%E -4.08%K -9.19%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -9.25%E -4.95%K -10.63%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-19 22:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.