The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Worcester Red Sox v Rochester Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 15:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcester Red Sox (Local)

Prediction 49.64%2.01fair odd
EV +0.776%
Edge +0.382%
Kelly +0.754%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.30%49.05%50.00%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.881.872.0355.56%53.19%53.48%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 50.36%1.99fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.52%50.95%50.00%53.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.851.871.9157.14%53.97%53.48%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worcester Red Sox (Local): 49.64%; Rochester Red Wings (Visit): 50.36%. For Worcester Red Sox (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.03, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.776%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.30%EV +0.776%E +0.382%K +0.754%G +0.006%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.70%EV -11.88%E -6.79%K -15.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-21 15:00
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.18%E -2.71%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.85%E -4.29%K -9.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 15:00
FanDuel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.17%E -3.27%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.83%E -2.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-21 15:00
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.17%E -3.83%K -8.24%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.83%E -3.12%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-21 15:00
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.03%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -4.83%E -2.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-21 11:40
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.15%E -5.00%K -11.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.85%E -4.29%K -9.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-21 15:00
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -10.64%E -5.91%K -13.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -3.82%E -2.00%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-21 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.