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Toledo Mud Hens v Omaha Storm Chasers

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toledo Mud Hens (Local)

Prediction 51.17%1.95fair odd
EV +4.90%
Edge +2.39%
Kelly +4.67%
Growth +0.229%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%51.34%51.07%52.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.851.832.0556.50%53.99%54.64%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Omaha Storm Chasers (Visit)

Prediction 48.83%2.05fair odd
EV -5.28%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -5.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.71%48.66%48.93%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.891.911.9457.47%53.03%52.36%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toledo Mud Hens (Local): 51.17%; Omaha Storm Chasers (Visit): 48.83%. For Toledo Mud Hens (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV +4.90%E +2.39%K +4.67%G +0.229%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -15.04%E -8.64%K -20.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 22:00
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -2.26%E -1.18%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.34%EV -11.62%E -6.42%K -14.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 22:25
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.33%E -2.88%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.76%E -2.99%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 21:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.35%E -3.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 20:24
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.35%E -3.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 21:54
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.35%E -3.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 22:12
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.86%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 22:14
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.89%E -4.38%K -9.86%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.74%E -3.53%K -7.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 21:55
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -9.42%E -5.32%K -12.24%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -5.28%E -2.72%K -5.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 21:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.