The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Toledo Mud Hens v Omaha Storm Chasers

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toledo Mud Hens (Local)

Prediction 43.50%2.30fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%43.87%43.08%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.2050.00%46.54%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Omaha Storm Chasers (Visit)

Prediction 56.50%1.77fair odd
EV +0.000%
Edge +0.000%
Kelly +0.001%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%56.13%56.92%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.661.661.7762.11%60.08%60.24%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toledo Mud Hens (Local): 43.50%; Omaha Storm Chasers (Visit): 56.50%. For Omaha Storm Chasers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76999. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77000, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.0004%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -12.99%E -6.50%K -12.99%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +0.000%E +0.000%K +0.001%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 21:15
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.64%E -4.12%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.39%E -1.98%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 22:30
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.65%E -3.38%K -8.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 14:55
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.65%E -3.38%K -8.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 15:51
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.21%E -3.74%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-21 14:54
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -6.90%E -3.23%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -6.78%E -4.11%K -10.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 17:34
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.47%E -5.23%K -13.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 15:45
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.47%E -3.01%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.47%E -5.23%K -13.67%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 19:35
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.29%E -1.95%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.04%E -5.61%K -14.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.