The School of Odds
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Toledo Mud Hens v Omaha Storm Chasers

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toledo Mud Hens (Local)

Prediction 53.22%1.88fair odd
EV +7.51%
Edge +3.72%
Kelly +7.37%
Growth +0.553%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.13%52.34%52.98%55.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.801.772.0258.48%55.42%56.50%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Omaha Storm Chasers (Visit)

Prediction 46.78%2.14fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.00%47.66%47.02%53.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.952.002.0957.80%51.34%50.00%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toledo Mud Hens (Local): 53.22%; Omaha Storm Chasers (Visit): 46.78%. For Toledo Mud Hens (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.02, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV +7.51%E +3.72%K +7.37%G +0.553%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -19.08%E -11.03%K -26.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 19:00
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -1.00%E -0.540%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -13.00%E -6.99%K -15.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 13:19
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -1.54%E -0.830%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -13.46%E -7.28%K -15.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-09 13:20
FanDuel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.26%E -2.96%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.45%E -3.22%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 19:54
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.79%E -3.27%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.45%E -3.22%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 19:55
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.79%E -3.27%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.45%E -3.22%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 19:58
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.39%E -4.25%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.11%E -2.00%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 19:58
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.39%E -4.25%K -9.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.79%E -4.51%K -9.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 19:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -8.99%E -5.26%K -12.66%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV -2.24%E -1.07%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 19:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.