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Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Toledo Mud Hens v Louisville Bats

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toledo Mud Hens (Local)

Prediction 59.51%1.68fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -4.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.11%59.61%59.31%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.601.6365.36%62.89%62.50%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Bats (Visit)

Prediction 40.49%2.47fair odd
EV +3.26%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +2.10%
Growth +0.069%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%40.39%40.69%42.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.302.252.5546.08%43.56%44.44%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toledo Mud Hens (Local): 59.51%; Louisville Bats (Visit): 40.49%. For Louisville Bats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -8.96%E -5.85%K -16.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +3.26%E +1.28%K +2.10%G +0.069%4.6%2026-07-25 19:33
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -7.17%E -4.60%K -12.80%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -3.22%E -1.35%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-25 19:20
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.38%E -3.39%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.84%E -2.06%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 22:24
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.79%E -2.99%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.86%E -2.98%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 19:35
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.79%E -2.99%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-25 19:40
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.57%E -4.19%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.89%E -3.95%K -7.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 20:05
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.60%E -2.22%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.91%E -4.96%K -9.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 21:10
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -4.19%E -2.61%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -10.91%E -4.96%K -9.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-25 22:12
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%EV -3.00%E -1.84%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -12.13%E -5.59%K -10.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-25 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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