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Toledo Mud Hens v Louisville Bats

Kickoff: 2026-07-24 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toledo Mud Hens (Local)

Prediction 54.91%1.82fair odd
EV +2.68%
Edge +1.43%
Kelly +3.08%
Growth +0.082%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%54.53%54.77%56.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.751.731.8760.24%57.03%57.80%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Bats (Visit)

Prediction 45.09%2.22fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.569%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.12%45.47%45.23%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.022.052.1953.48%49.61%48.78%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toledo Mud Hens (Local): 54.91%; Louisville Bats (Visit): 45.09%. For Toledo Mud Hens (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +2.68%E +1.43%K +3.08%G +0.082%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -15.68%E -8.38%K -18.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-24 21:55
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV +1.58%E +0.853%K +1.86%G +0.029%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -15.68%E -8.38%K -18.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-24 22:10
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV +0.480%E +0.262%K +0.579%G +0.003%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -15.23%E -8.10%K -17.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 21:40
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.46%E -2.56%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-24 22:20
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.01%E -2.90%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.81%E -4.91%K -9.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 22:25
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.56%E -3.23%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -6.21%E -2.98%K -5.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-24 22:25
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.21%E -4.26%K -10.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.05%E -1.42%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-24 22:23
Betway🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.21%E -4.26%K -10.44%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-24 22:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -8.85%E -5.33%K -13.42%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -1.25%E -0.569%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-24 22:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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