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Toledo Mud Hens v Iowa Cubs

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toledo Mud Hens (Local)

Prediction 52.19%1.92fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -5.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%53.12%52.12%58.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.771.801.8363.69%56.54%55.56%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Iowa Cubs (Visit)

Prediction 47.81%2.09fair odd
EV +7.56%
Edge +3.36%
Kelly +6.05%
Growth +0.458%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%46.88%47.88%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.001.962.2552.36%49.94%50.89%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toledo Mud Hens (Local): 52.19%; Iowa Cubs (Visit): 47.81%. For Iowa Cubs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -18.06%E -11.50%K -31.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +7.56%E +3.36%K +6.05%G +0.458%8.1%2026-08-22 20:20
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -7.62%E -4.30%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -1.04%E -0.503%K -0.973%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 21:34
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.62%E -4.30%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.39%E -2.19%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 21:19
FanDuel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -5.53%E -3.05%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -5.34%E -2.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 21:19
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 21:23
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 21:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.49%E -2.45%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 21:14
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 21:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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