The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Toledo Mud Hens v Indianapolis Indians

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toledo Mud Hens (Local)

Prediction 51.83%1.93fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.552%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%51.84%51.93%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.791.801.9559.88%55.97%55.56%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Indianapolis Indians (Visit)

Prediction 48.17%2.08fair odd
EV +1.15%
Edge +0.547%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%48.16%48.07%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.961.952.1055.56%50.93%51.28%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toledo Mud Hens (Local): 51.83%; Indianapolis Indians (Visit): 48.17%. For Indianapolis Indians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.08. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +1.08%E +0.552%K +1.13%G +0.012%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -13.30%E -7.39%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 22:00
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -5.66%E -3.11%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -5.59%E -2.85%K -5.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-21 22:00
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.70%E -3.72%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.08%E -3.12%K -6.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 22:00
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.70%E -3.72%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.08%E -3.12%K -6.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 21:48
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.70%E -3.72%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.00%E -4.19%K -8.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-21 22:10
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.70%E -3.72%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.00%E -4.19%K -8.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-21 22:00
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.21%EV -9.29%E -5.31%K -12.39%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.79%EV -4.15%E -2.08%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 21:59
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -12.40%E -7.34%K -17.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV +1.15%E +0.547%K +1.04%G +0.012%6.8%2026-05-21 17:39
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -13.44%E -8.05%K -20.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV +1.15%E +0.547%K +1.04%G +0.012%7.5%2026-05-21 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.