The School of Odds
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Tacoma Rainiers v Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-05-15 02:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tacoma Rainiers (Local)

Prediction 54.39%1.84fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -4.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.82%54.51%54.27%56.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.741.7759.88%57.84%57.47%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 45.61%2.19fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.475%
Kelly -0.880%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.49%45.49%45.73%47.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.042.052.1750.76%48.92%48.78%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tacoma Rainiers (Local): 54.39%; Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit): 45.61%. For Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.17, with an expected value of -1.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 16:38
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -4.27%E -2.43%K -5.62%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -10.15%E -5.15%K -10.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 17:05
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -4.81%E -2.75%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -10.15%E -5.15%K -10.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-14 21:15
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -5.13%E -2.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-14 17:00
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 17:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 20:05
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.22%E -2.01%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 21:12
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-15 00:05
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.53%E -4.43%K -10.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.68%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -1.03%E -0.475%K -0.880%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.