The School of Odds
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Tacoma Rainiers v Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-05-12 18:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tacoma Rainiers (Local)

Prediction 53.55%1.87fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -4.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.73%53.68%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.741.741.8059.17%57.40%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 46.45%2.15fair odd
EV -0.127%
Edge -0.059%
Kelly -0.111%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.01%46.27%46.32%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.002.1551.28%49.37%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tacoma Rainiers (Local): 53.55%; Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit): 46.45%. For Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.153. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.150, with an expected value of -0.127%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.61%E -2.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.42%E -4.83%K -9.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-12 18:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.22%E -2.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.10%E -3.55%K -7.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-12 18:05
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.22%E -2.95%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.10%E -3.55%K -7.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-12 18:14
FanDuel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -5.76%E -3.27%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -5.24%E -2.57%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-12 18:05
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.83%E -3.92%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.77%E -2.33%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 18:00
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.36%E -4.26%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.10%E -3.55%K -7.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-12 17:55
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -8.43%E -4.93%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -5.24%E -2.57%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 18:00
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.43%E -4.93%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.10%E -3.55%K -7.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-12 18:05
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -9.50%E -5.62%K -13.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -0.127%E -0.059%K -0.111%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-12 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.