The School of Odds
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Syracuse Mets v Rochester Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Syracuse Mets (Local)

Prediction 44.64%2.24fair odd
EV +2.68%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +2.06%
Growth +0.055%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.18%45.27%42.87%51.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.792.102.172.3055.87%47.59%46.08%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 55.36%1.81fair odd
EV +6.84%
Edge +3.54%
Kelly +7.36%
Growth +0.503%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.12%54.73%57.13%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.711.671.9362.11%58.59%59.88%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Syracuse Mets (Local): 44.64%; Rochester Red Wings (Visit): 55.36%. For Rochester Red Wings (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.93, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV -20.09%E -11.22%K -25.43%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%EV +6.84%E +3.54%K +7.36%G +0.503%7.7%2026-05-10 16:34
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -18.30%E -10.00%K -22.05%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +5.73%E +3.00%K +6.30%G +0.361%7.0%2026-05-10 16:33
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%EV -8.04%E -3.90%K -7.58%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.89%E -3.47%K -8.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 16:50
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -6.25%E -2.98%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.45%E -3.81%K -9.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 16:58
BetOnline.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -3.13%E -1.44%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -7.55%E -4.52%K -11.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-10 16:50
FanDuel🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV +0.891%E +0.394%K +0.707%G +0.006%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -10.32%E -6.37%K -16.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-10 16:54
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -1.79%E -0.812%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -10.32%E -6.37%K -16.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 16:53
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV +2.68%E +1.16%K +2.06%G +0.055%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -10.87%E -6.75%K -17.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 16:44
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -1.79%E -0.812%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -10.87%E -6.75%K -17.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.