The School of Odds
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Syracuse Mets v Rochester Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Syracuse Mets (Local)

Prediction 51.26%1.95fair odd
EV +6.11%
Edge +2.95%
Kelly +5.71%
Growth +0.349%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.53%51.00%50.66%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.801.732.0759.88%55.44%57.64%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 48.74%2.05fair odd
EV +2.35%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +2.14%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%49.00%49.34%54.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.972.042.1057.80%50.76%49.14%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Syracuse Mets (Local): 51.26%; Rochester Red Wings (Visit): 48.74%. For Syracuse Mets (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV +6.11%E +2.95%K +5.71%G +0.349%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%EV -15.68%E -9.06%K -21.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-05 22:30
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -0.042%E -0.022%K -0.044%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -12.27%E -6.82%K -15.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-05 22:30
FanDuel🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -4.66%E -2.50%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -6.91%E -3.62%K -7.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-05 22:30
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -10.81%E -6.21%K -14.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -0.084%E -0.041%K -0.080%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-05 18:25
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -11.32%E -6.54%K -15.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -1.55%E -0.765%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 18:05
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -12.34%E -7.22%K -17.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV +2.35%E +1.12%K +2.14%G +0.050%6.1%2026-05-05 18:47
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -12.86%E -7.56%K -18.37%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -0.084%E -0.041%K -0.080%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-05 19:50
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -14.40%E -8.62%K -21.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV +2.35%E +1.12%K +2.14%G +0.050%7.5%2026-05-05 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.