The School of Odds
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Syracuse Mets v Norfolk Tides

Kickoff: 2026-06-21 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Syracuse Mets (Local)

Prediction 57.36%1.74fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -4.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.76%57.16%57.36%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.641.631.6962.11%60.83%61.35%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norfolk Tides (Visit)

Prediction 42.64%2.35fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%42.84%42.64%44.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.132.202.202.2546.95%45.37%45.45%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Syracuse Mets (Local): 57.36%; Norfolk Tides (Visit): 42.64%. For Syracuse Mets (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.69, with an expected value of -3.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -3.05%E -1.81%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -9.19%E -4.31%K -8.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-21 16:50
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.20%E -2.52%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-21 15:49
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -6.50%E -3.99%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -4.50%E -2.01%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-21 09:39
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.07%E -4.36%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.07%E -1.81%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-21 09:39
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.64%E -4.75%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-21 10:27
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.