The School of Odds
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Syracuse Mets v Norfolk Tides

Kickoff: 2026-06-16 22:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Syracuse Mets (Local)

Prediction 54.08%1.85fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%54.86%55.12%60.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.691.711.8064.52%59.32%58.48%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norfolk Tides (Visit)

Prediction 45.92%2.18fair odd
EV +7.00%
Edge +3.00%
Kelly +5.26%
Growth +0.368%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.95%45.14%44.88%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.122.102.3351.28%47.20%47.62%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Syracuse Mets (Local): 54.08%; Norfolk Tides (Visit): 45.92%. For Norfolk Tides (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.05%EV -16.18%E -10.44%K -29.41%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV +7.00%E +3.00%K +5.26%G +0.368%7.4%2026-06-16 20:29
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -12.39%E -7.65%K -19.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +1.03%E +0.467%K +0.856%G +0.009%7.2%2026-06-16 21:50
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -12.93%E -8.03%K -21.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV +1.03%E +0.467%K +0.856%G +0.009%7.6%2026-06-16 21:50
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.53%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -3.57%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-16 21:10
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.53%E -4.40%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -3.57%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-16 21:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.66%E -1.48%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.45%E -5.36%K -11.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-16 21:00
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.66%E -1.48%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.45%E -5.36%K -11.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-16 21:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.