The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sugar Land Space Cowboys v Round Rock Express

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 16:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 65.01%1.54fair odd
EV -0.541%
Edge -0.354%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.65%64.42%65.01%66.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.451.441.5369.93%68.81%69.44%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Round Rock Express (Visit)

Prediction 34.99%2.86fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.977%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.97%35.58%34.99%38.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.462.642.632.7840.65%37.90%37.95%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Local): 65.01%; Round Rock Express (Visit): 34.99%. For Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.53, with an expected value of -0.541%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -0.541%E -0.354%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -13.91%E -5.66%K -9.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 16:00
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.74%E -3.96%K -12.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.52%E -2.04%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 15:09
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.39%E -4.44%K -14.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.31%E -3.17%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 15:09
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.39%E -4.44%K -14.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.31%E -3.17%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 15:09
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%EV -7.04%E -4.92%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%EV -2.72%E -0.977%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 15:59
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -7.04%E -4.92%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -7.26%E -2.74%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 15:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.