The School of Odds
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Sugar Land Space Cowboys v Reno Aces

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 00:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 53.29%1.88fair odd
EV +6.57%
Edge +3.29%
Kelly +6.57%
Growth +0.432%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%52.72%53.10%56.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.771.772.0060.61%56.53%56.50%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Reno Aces (Visit)

Prediction 46.71%2.14fair odd
EV +1.84%
Edge +0.843%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.77%47.28%46.90%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.772.012.002.1856.50%49.75%50.00%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Local): 53.29%; Reno Aces (Visit): 46.71%. For Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV +6.57%E +3.29%K +6.57%G +0.432%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -17.32%E -9.78%K -22.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:45
FanDuel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.15%E -2.89%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -5.64%E -2.79%K -5.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-05 23:45
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.68%E -3.21%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.57%E -3.29%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:44
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.68%E -3.21%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.57%E -3.29%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.68%E -3.21%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.57%E -3.29%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-05 23:44
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.28%E -4.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.24%E -2.07%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:43
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.28%E -4.19%K -9.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.91%E -4.57%K -9.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-05 23:45
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -9.41%E -5.54%K -13.45%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +1.84%E +0.843%K +1.56%G +0.029%4.7%2026-09-05 23:05
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -12.08%E -7.32%K -18.58%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -0.966%E -0.456%K -0.863%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.