The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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St. Paul Saints v Louisville Bats

Kickoff: 2026-08-05 18:07 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Paul Saints (Local)

Prediction 54.61%1.83fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.950%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%54.26%54.61%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.711.711.8059.88%58.37%58.48%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Bats (Visit)

Prediction 45.39%2.20fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -4.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.74%45.39%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.062.062.1051.28%48.52%48.54%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Paul Saints (Local): 54.61%; Louisville Bats (Visit): 45.39%. For St. Paul Saints (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -1.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.71%E -0.950%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.48%E -5.89%K -12.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 17:20
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.99%E -2.87%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.94%E -3.39%K -6.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 17:35
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.63%E -3.87%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.67%E -2.22%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 17:30
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.63%E -3.87%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.67%E -2.22%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 17:30
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -6.63%E -3.87%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -7.39%E -3.62%K -7.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 16:00
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.17%E -4.22%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%EV -6.49%E -3.15%K -6.12%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-05 14:45
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.72%E -4.57%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -4.67%E -2.22%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 14:44
Betway🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.72%E -4.57%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -6.94%E -3.39%K -6.61%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 17:30
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.81%E -5.28%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.67%E -2.22%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-05 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.