The School of Odds
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St. Paul Saints v Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 19:07 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Paul Saints (Local)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -2.91%
Kelly -6.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.15%50.00%58.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.831.861.8962.11%54.77%53.76%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit)

Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV +14.00%
Edge +6.14%
Kelly +10.94%
Growth +1.53%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.39%47.85%50.00%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.921.872.2854.64%52.04%53.48%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Paul Saints (Local): 50.00%; Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit): 50.00%. For Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -19.50%E -12.11%K -31.97%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV +14.00%E +6.14%K +10.94%G +1.53%6.0%2026-04-19 19:05
FanDuel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 16:50
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 17:10
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 18:44
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -7.00%E -3.76%K -8.14%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -7.00%E -3.76%K -8.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 17:15
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.50%E -4.05%K -8.82%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.50%E -4.05%K -8.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 17:01
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.50%E -4.64%K -10.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.50%E -4.64%K -10.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.