The School of Odds
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St. Paul Saints v Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 23:37 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Paul Saints (Local)

Prediction 51.03%1.96fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.783%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.12%51.21%50.53%55.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.841.851.9358.48%54.32%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit)

Prediction 48.97%2.04fair odd
EV +2.35%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +2.15%
Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 2.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.00%48.79%49.47%51.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.901.872.0955.87%52.75%53.48%47.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Paul Saints (Local): 51.03%; Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit): 48.97%. For Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.00%EV -12.74%E -7.45%K -17.94%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.00%EV +2.35%E +1.12%K +2.15%G +0.051%6.3%2026-04-16 22:29
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -9.68%E -5.47%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -2.06%E -1.03%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 20:49
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.62%E -3.61%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.47%E -3.39%K -7.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 23:34
FanDuel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -3.55%E -1.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -7.45%E -3.94%K -8.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 17:25
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.57%E -2.45%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.43%E -4.51%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 23:24
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -5.59%E -3.02%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -9.41%E -5.08%K -11.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-16 17:50
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -3.55%E -1.88%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -10.38%E -5.67%K -12.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 17:45
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -6.62%E -3.61%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -10.38%E -5.67%K -12.51%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-16 20:39
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%EV -1.51%E -0.783%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV -12.34%E -6.90%K -15.62%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-16 23:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.