The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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St. Paul Saints v Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Kickoff: 2026-04-15 23:37 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Paul Saints (Local)

Prediction 47.01%2.13fair odd
EV +15.17%
Edge +6.19%
Kelly +10.46%
Growth +1.59%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%47.01%50.00%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.772.182.262.4556.50%45.94%44.25%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit)

Prediction 52.99%1.89fair odd
EV +5.98%
Edge +2.99%
Kelly +5.98%
Growth +0.358%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%52.99%50.00%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.681.602.0066.67%59.52%62.50%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Paul Saints (Local): 47.01%; Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit): 52.99%. For St. Paul Saints (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV +15.17%E +6.19%K +10.46%G +1.59%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -18.92%E -12.37%K -35.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-15 23:08
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV +15.17%E +6.19%K +10.46%G +1.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -20.51%E -13.68%K -41.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-15 20:49
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.42%EV +13.76%E +5.69%K +9.69%G +1.33%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.58%EV -19.98%E -13.23%K -39.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-15 23:09
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -1.28%E -0.611%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -11.50%E -6.89%K -17.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-15 23:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -12.09%E -6.47%K -13.90%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -0.906%E -0.484%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-15 23:34
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -16.80%E -9.49%K -21.81%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV +5.98%E +2.99%K +5.98%G +0.358%6.5%2026-04-15 23:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.