The School of Odds
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Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders v Rochester Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-08-07 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Local)

Prediction 55.77%1.79fair odd
EV +3.17%
Edge +1.71%
Kelly +3.72%
Growth +0.118%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%55.18%55.85%58.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.711.691.8561.73%58.40%59.17%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 44.23%2.26fair odd
EV -0.914%
Edge -0.408%
Kelly -0.737%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.97%44.82%44.15%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.082.102.2454.05%48.15%47.62%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Local): 55.77%; Rochester Red Wings (Visit): 44.23%. For Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +3.17%E +1.71%K +3.72%G +0.118%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -18.17%E -9.82%K -21.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-07 15:55
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -0.180%E -0.101%K -0.228%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV -14.18%E -7.31%K -15.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-07 22:50
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -3.53%E -2.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -11.53%E -5.77%K -11.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-07 22:44
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.64%E -2.71%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.11%E -3.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-07 22:52
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.76%E -3.41%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.90%E -2.28%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 22:55
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -6.31%E -3.76%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -4.45%E -2.06%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 22:55
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.87%E -4.12%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.90%E -2.28%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 22:53
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.87%E -4.12%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.11%E -3.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -9.66%E -5.96%K -15.58%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -0.914%E -0.408%K -0.737%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 22:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.