The School of Odds
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Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders v Rochester Red Wings

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Local)

Prediction 54.65%1.83fair odd
EV +2.74%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +3.11%
Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.33%53.81%54.74%55.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.741.721.8859.17%57.42%58.14%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Red Wings (Visit)

Prediction 45.35%2.20fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.24%46.19%45.26%50.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.032.052.1354.64%49.19%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Local): 54.65%; Rochester Red Wings (Visit): 45.35%. For Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV +2.74%E +1.46%K +3.11%G +0.085%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -17.01%E -9.29%K -20.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 20:15
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.21%EV -4.37%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.79%EV -9.75%E -4.90%K -9.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 22:15
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.91%E -2.82%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 21:25
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.01%E -3.49%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.67%E -2.73%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 21:25
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.55%E -3.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 21:35
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.10%E -4.18%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -7.64%E -4.52%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.