The School of Odds

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders v Norfolk Tides

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Local)

Prediction 54.94%1.82fair odd
EV +4.94%
Edge +2.59%
Kelly +5.43%
Growth +0.268%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.93%54.94%54.94%60.96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.531.641.561.9165.36%60.88%63.90%52.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Norfolk Tides (Visit)

Prediction 45.06%2.22fair odd
EV +9.04%
Edge +3.73%
Kelly +6.36%
Growth +0.575%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.04%45.06%45.06%51.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.832.222.312.4254.64%45.05%43.20%41.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel1.55I 64.52%NM 60.96%EV -14.84%E -9.57%K -26.98%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.04%EV +9.04%E +3.73%K +6.36%G +0.575%5.8%2026-07-05 17:51
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -15.94%E -10.42%K -30.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV +7.23%E +3.04%K +5.24%G +0.379%7.4%2026-07-05 17:49
1xBet1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -13.19%E -8.35%K -22.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV +1.38%E +0.612%K +1.10%G +0.015%7.7%2026-07-05 17:39
Caesars1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +4.94%E +2.59%K +5.43%G +0.268%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -17.55%E -9.59%K -21.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 17:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.