The School of Odds
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Salt Lake Bees v Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 00:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Salt Lake Bees (Local)

Prediction 43.27%2.31fair odd
EV +8.17%
Edge +3.27%
Kelly +5.45%
Growth +0.445%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%43.28%42.13%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.232.262.5051.28%44.76%44.25%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 56.73%1.76fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +2.65%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%56.72%57.87%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.621.601.8066.67%61.61%62.70%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Salt Lake Bees (Local): 43.27%; Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit): 56.73%. For Salt Lake Bees (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +8.17%E +3.27%K +5.45%G +0.445%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -14.90%E -9.93%K -29.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-15 16:30
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV +3.84%E +1.60%K +2.74%G +0.105%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -14.33%E -9.49%K -28.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-15 21:44
FanDuel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV +0.380%E +0.164%K +0.288%G +0.001%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -9.23%E -5.77%K -15.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 00:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -0.486%E -0.211%K -0.374%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -9.79%E -6.16%K -16.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 00:19
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.89%EV -1.78%E -0.786%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -10.93%E -6.96%K -19.17%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-15 23:54
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -2.65%E -1.18%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.93%E -6.96%K -19.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-15 23:49
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.26%E -3.15%K -7.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-15 23:34
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.81%E -2.19%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.09%E -5.00%K -13.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-15 23:52
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -15.63%E -8.01%K -16.45%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV +2.12%E +1.18%K +2.65%G +0.056%6.8%2026-04-15 23:38
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -15.63%E -8.01%K -16.45%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV +2.12%E +1.18%K +2.65%G +0.056%6.8%2026-04-16 00:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.