The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Salt Lake Bees v Reno Aces

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 00:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Salt Lake Bees (Local)

Prediction 51.07%1.96fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -6.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.06%51.17%51.07%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.821.831.8555.56%54.84%54.64%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Reno Aces (Visit)

Prediction 48.93%2.04fair odd
EV -5.56%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -5.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.52%48.83%48.93%48.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.911.911.9352.36%52.26%52.36%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Salt Lake Bees (Local): 51.07%; Reno Aces (Visit): 48.93%. For Salt Lake Bees (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -5.52%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.52%E -2.98%K -6.50%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.56%E -2.88%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 00:50
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.54%E -3.58%K -7.88%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 00:46
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.54%E -3.58%K -7.88%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 00:50
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.54%E -3.58%K -7.88%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.54%E -3.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 00:50
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -8.07%E -4.49%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.54%E -3.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-18 00:50
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -8.07%E -4.49%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.54%E -3.43%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-18 00:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.