The School of Odds
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Sacramento River Cats v Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 01:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sacramento River Cats (Local)

Prediction 59.38%1.68fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -2.73%
Kelly -7.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.38%59.41%59.46%60.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.581.591.6164.10%63.13%62.89%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 40.62%2.46fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%40.59%40.54%41.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.302.302.4044.84%43.40%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sacramento River Cats (Local): 59.38%; Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit): 40.62%. For Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -2.51%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.40%E -2.73%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.57%E -2.86%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-22 16:50
Caesars🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.59%E -3.51%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.51%E -1.05%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-22 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -5.59%E -3.51%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -5.76%E -2.48%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-22 17:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.59%E -3.51%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.57%E -2.86%K -5.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-22 19:50
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.59%E -3.51%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.57%E -2.86%K -5.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-22 20:49
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.38%EV -5.59%E -3.51%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.62%EV -9.41%E -4.22%K -7.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-22 17:30
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -6.18%E -3.91%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -4.95%E -2.11%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-22 16:50
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.78%E -4.32%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.57%E -2.86%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-22 17:30
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.78%E -4.32%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.60%E -3.82%K -6.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-22 22:49
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -7.37%E -4.72%K -13.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.57%E -2.86%K -5.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-22 17:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.