The School of Odds
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Sacramento River Cats v Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 19:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sacramento River Cats (Local)

Prediction 60.94%1.64fair odd
EV -4.93%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -8.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.95%60.89%60.61%61.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.541.531.5665.36%65.03%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 39.06%2.56fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.35%39.11%39.39%40.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.402.402.4643.10%41.74%41.67%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sacramento River Cats (Local): 60.94%; Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit): 39.06%. For Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.46, with an expected value of -3.92%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.93%E -3.16%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.26%E -2.61%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-19 15:39
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -5.54%E -3.57%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -9.39%E -4.05%K -7.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-19 19:00
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.15%E -3.99%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.26%E -2.61%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-19 17:28
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.31%EV -6.15%E -3.99%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.69%EV -8.61%E -3.68%K -6.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-19 19:00
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.76%E -4.42%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -3.92%E -1.59%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-19 15:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.76%E -4.42%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -3.92%E -1.59%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-19 15:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.76%E -4.42%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.31%E -1.76%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-19 15:39
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.76%E -4.42%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.04%E -2.96%K -5.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-19 16:19
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.76%E -4.42%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.21%E -3.50%K -6.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-19 16:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.