The School of Odds
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Sacramento River Cats v Salt Lake Bees

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sacramento River Cats (Local)

Prediction 54.08%1.85fair odd
EV -5.35%
Edge -3.06%
Kelly -7.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%54.19%54.09%54.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.731.741.7558.82%57.74%57.47%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Salt Lake Bees (Visit)

Prediction 45.92%2.18fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -4.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.09%45.81%45.91%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.042.052.0750.00%49.02%48.78%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sacramento River Cats (Local): 54.08%; Salt Lake Bees (Visit): 45.92%. For Salt Lake Bees (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.07, with an expected value of -4.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -5.41%E -2.63%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 12:59
Hard Rock Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.89%E -3.39%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.87%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 14:08
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.89%E -3.39%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.87%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 12:59
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.89%E -3.39%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.87%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 13:07
BetOnline.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.89%E -3.39%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.87%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 13:19
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.89%E -3.39%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.87%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 13:44
1xBet1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -6.43%E -3.72%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -7.25%E -3.59%K -7.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 13:38
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.43%E -3.72%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.17%E -4.08%K -8.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 13:04
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.17%E -4.08%K -8.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-12 17:09
BetRivers1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -4.95%E -2.39%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 14:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.