The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Round Rock Express v Sacramento River Cats

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 00:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Round Rock Express (Local)

Prediction 42.49%2.35fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.609%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%42.90%43.01%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.232.272.3250.00%44.91%44.05%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sacramento River Cats (Visit)

Prediction 57.51%1.74fair odd
EV +1.78%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +2.32%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%57.10%56.99%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.621.7764.52%61.35%61.73%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Round Rock Express (Local): 42.49%; Sacramento River Cats (Visit): 57.51%. For Sacramento River Cats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -15.01%E -7.51%K -15.01%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +1.78%E +1.01%K +2.32%G +0.041%6.5%2026-05-15 23:55
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.51%E -2.96%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.97%E -2.37%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 00:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.64%E -4.02%K -7.51%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -3.97%E -2.37%K -5.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-15 23:35
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -6.51%E -2.96%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.54%E -2.74%K -6.88%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 00:00
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.26%E -0.984%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.84%E -4.22%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-15 23:28
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -2.26%E -0.984%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -8.57%E -5.39%K -14.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-15 21:49
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -2.26%E -0.984%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -9.72%E -6.19%K -17.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-15 19:05
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.89%EV -3.54%E -1.56%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -9.72%E -6.19%K -17.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-15 21:40
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -1.41%E -0.609%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -10.87%E -7.01%K -19.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-15 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.