The School of Odds
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Round Rock Express v El Paso Chihuahuas

Kickoff: 2026-04-14 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Round Rock Express (Local)

Prediction 42.42%2.36fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.87%44.13%42.26%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.182.232.3055.56%45.82%44.94%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

El Paso Chihuahuas (Visit)

Prediction 57.58%1.74fair odd
EV +12.27%
Edge +6.29%
Kelly +12.92%
Growth +1.59%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%55.87%57.74%59.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.661.621.9562.89%60.29%61.92%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Round Rock Express (Local): 42.42%; El Paso Chihuahuas (Visit): 57.58%. For El Paso Chihuahuas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -23.64%E -13.13%K -29.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +12.27%E +6.29%K +12.92%G +1.59%6.8%2026-04-14 17:00
Caesars🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.67%E -3.03%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.85%E -2.30%K -5.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 16:59
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.55%E -2.02%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-14 17:00
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -7.52%E -3.45%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 15:10
FanDuel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -3.27%E -1.44%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -7.30%E -4.54%K -11.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-14 17:00
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.67%E -3.03%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.30%E -4.54%K -11.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 17:00
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.55%E -2.02%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.88%E -4.92%K -13.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 15:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -2.43%E -1.05%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -8.45%E -5.32%K -14.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-14 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.